Right Horizons

Headbangers Ball!

2012-01-28T13:55:00.001+05:30

Carrying on from last week, the week gone by saw the main indices moving up further. It was the fourth consecutive week of gains for the Sensex/Nifty as they took out the intermediate highs of 17004/5099 and also closed above the 200 day EMA. W-o-W, while the Sensex gained 2.82%, the Nifty was up by 3.09% over the same period. Reflecting the positive sentiments, market breadth was positive in all the four trading sessions of the week.

Key Events

Indian Markets

India's central bank unexpectedly cut the amount of deposits lenders need to set aside as reserves for the first time since 2009 and signaled future interest-rate cuts, joining BRIC nations in shielding growth. Stocks rose. The Reserve Bank of India reduced the cash reserve ratio to 5.5 percent from 6 percent, it said in a statement in Mumbai today. The move adds around 320 billion rupees ($6.4 billion) into lenders, it said

Cotton production in India, the second-biggest grower, will be lower than earlier forecast after diseases cut yields in the states of Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh, said the nation's textiles commissioner. The harvest may reach 34.5 million bales of 170 kilograms (375 pounds) each in the year that began Oct. 1, against 35.6 million bales estimated on Nov. 15, Textiles Commissioner A.B. Joshi told reporters in Mumbai after a meeting of the Cotton Advisory Board. India produced 32.5 million bales in 2010-2011.

The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for global growth and warned that the European debt crisis threatens to derail the world economy. India is expected to grow 7 percent in 2012, 0.5 percentage point less than in September forecasts.

India's economic growth is weakening more than anticipated and inflation remains 'high' as the rupee's fall threatens to stoke price pressures, the central bank said, signaling it may leave interest rates unchanged. 'The growth slowdown, high inflation and currency pressures, complicate policy choices,' the Reserve Bank of India said in a report yesterday before its rate decision in Mumbai. The 'critical factors' ahead will be 'core inflation and exchange rate pass-through,' it said, adding that keeping the 'liquidity deficit' in acceptable limits is also a priority.

Outlook of the week

We would now be closing 2012 January on a firm note, irrespective what would happen in the couple of days left to close. The reason for this firm finish and the extent of the gains is not new and has been spoken a lot buy ‘pundits’ on TV. With earnings season looking decent so far, though bulk of the big names (SBI amongst them) reporting next week, it could prove very crucial. Especially for setting the tone for February 2012. My sense is that we could see a pull back of anywhere from 3%-5% due to the fact that SBI’s numbers could disappoint, also host of financial services/banks could post negative surprises. On the flip side, such a strong momentum that was set in so far, clearly warrants that we consolidate or pull back marginally and push higher over time. FY13 could prove to be a consolidation year from corporate and then we move onto higher ground with passing years.

Sources:

HDFC Securities Weekly wrap of the Market

Right Horizons Equity Desk for Outlook for the coming week

Trailblazing performance! – Can it sustain??

2012-01-28T09:52:00.001+05:30

The Nifty Index just refuses to get bogged down now. EU worries, US slowdown worries or Asian worries; nothing has stopped this juggernaut through the month. Now we are up 12.5% for the month and conclusively. Today’s performing stars are all the high beta names and now the thing is getting a little worrisome, when all of the circumspect start to move and that too very fast.

The likes of SAIL, Jaiprakash and REL Infra have been moving like photons on steroids over the course of this week. Also what has been interesting is that there are more names cooling off quickly like HDFC Bank, HDFC, ITC and these are classic top names with good quality behind them. So if these guys settle down and start to move down, then it is only time before we start losing momentum on the crappy stuff.

For now, this month could be the best for a long time to send New year Greetings to client’s along with the month end reports. J

Nifty has reached at strong resistance level of 5200. It is likely nifty here sees some profit booking/ consolidation for few days before the next upmove. If manages to close above 5200 for couple of days, nifty could head higher to 5350 in near term. If not, profit booking could take nifty lower to 5000 levels.

Keeping it short. Enjoy the weekend.

Morning Be!!....Nifty crosses 5200 mark in early morning trade

2012-01-27T10:46:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The frontline Indian stock indices advanced modestly in early minutes of trade on Friday, extending this week's rally after the RBI surprisingly slashed the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by an aggressive half a percentage point to ease liquidity conditions and boost credit.

The undercurrent today is also supported by a global rally after the Federal Reserve pledged to keep interest rates exceptionally low till the end of 2014 and indicated at a possible QE3 down the line to boost the US economy.

It seems as if most central banks are in accommodative mood to support domestic growth amid rising global uncertainties. This could potentially keep commodities, including crude and gold, firm. How much of this liquidity makes its way into equities (especially that of EMs) remains to be seen.

After the RBI’s 50 bps CRR cut, the Federal Reserve has surprised the markets by pledging to keep interest rates “exceptionally low” till late 2014. Besides, the Fed has also hinted at QE3 in future to mitigate the impact on the US from the euro area debt debacle. Meanwhile, even Brazil has hinted at further rate cuts.

US and European Markets

Talks on a debt swap to lower Greece’s borrowings and avert a collapse of the economy are scheduled to resume today.European finance ministers have insisted that Greek bondholders take bigger losses on their debt. The IMF has suggested that public holders of Greek bonds might have to increase their support. Private bondholders have agreed with European officials to implement a 50% cut in the face value of more than 200 billion euros ($262 billion) of Greek debt by voluntarily swapping bonds for new securities.

The euro fell today, snapping a four-day gain against the dollar on concern that Greece might default on its debt. The yen rose amid some safer haven buying. The dollar’s appreciation was limited.

Asian Markets

Today, the Asian markets are trading in the green with Strait times & KOSPI trading up by 0.3% each. Nikkei is trading up by 0.4%, while Hang Seng was up by 0.6%. The Chinese and Taiwan markets remained closed. SGX Nifty is trading higher by 49 points over Wednesday?s close.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee fell on Wednesday as US Dollar demand from oil importers for month-end payments offset a rise in the local share market, although traders said likely dollar sales by the central bank pulled it off the day's low.

Commodities

Oil was trading near the highest price in a week, heading for the first weekly gain in three. Gold traders are bullish for a fourth consecutive week.

Key events to watch for today

US : Fed Balance Sheet, Money Supply, GDP (Q-o-Q), Consumer Sentiment

India : WPI (Y-o-Y)

Outlook

The Indian Markets are likely to open higher following positive Asian cues. However, at higher levels it could witness some profit taking later during the day. Immediate resistance levels for the Nifty stand at 5215. Downside support to watch is at 5125. Among the sectoral indices, Auto, Consumer Durables and Metals could do well.

Faster, Higher, Stronger…

2012-01-25T17:41:00.000+05:30

No it is yet time for the 2012 Olympics which are going to be held in London in a few weeks; but it feels like the Indian stock markets are already cheering for our participants for the event. This being a short week and earnings continuing to pour in, the market seem to have caught in some kind of rhythm. Last night’s fall in the US markets too, did not deter a very positive stance posed by the frontline counters. Sure there is continued volatility amongst the mid/small cap space and that is evident from the fact that the BSE 200 index names (notable amongst them) were trading at significant negative territory. Names such as IRB, Biocon, Tata Power, L&T etc were trading in red, however the financial institutions and Autos were zooming like racing on F1 tracks.

Today’s star performers were Tata Motors (this stock has been up 30% YTD, similar to other large cap infra names such as L&T) and host of high beta names such as REL Infra and JaiPrakash and the session itself marks a great victory of sorts for the Indian stock market since the momentum for the start of the year, week after week has been relentless; which has been the highlight.

With expiry today, the buying support was evident; however with tomorrow being an off day, and only one more trading day left for the week I expect very less volume on the markets for the rest of the week. Finally, we close the month next week and whoa! What a month this could turn out to be.

This definitely set the pace for the entire rest of 2012.

Happy Republic Day – India. Long Live the Republic.

Morning Be!!......Indices Up,after the RBI surprised the markets with a wider-than-expected 50 bps cut in the CRR

2012-01-25T11:30:00.001+05:30

Indian Markets

The key Indian equity benchmarks have advanced in early morning trade, extending the previous session's stellar rally after the RBI surprised the markets with a wider-than-expected 50 bps cut in the CRR. Many experts see this as a precursor to a rate cut in the coming months.

However, the central bank has flagged several potential risks to its monetary stance. So, a reversal in its rate hike cycle may not materialise before its April policy meeting.

The undertone is also upbeat on the back of strong gains in other Asian markets like Japan and Australia despite a whole host of downbeat news. The January rally in part has been driven by robust inflows from the overseas investors. FIIs have poured in more than US$1bn into Indian equities after valuations dropped in the wake of last year's 25% fall in the BSE Sensex.

But, read the full RBI policy statement and there are ample reasons for one to be cautious. The biggest of them is the Government’s messy fiscal position. Whether the Centre obliges the RBI Governor and rectifies the situation on its finances remains to be seen. Given the context, Union Budget would be interesting this time around.

Major Results Today:

Alstom Projects, AP Paper, Asahi India, BEML, BOB, Deepak Fertilizers, Future Capital, Himatsingka Seide, Indian Hotels, IRB Infra, Sesa Goa, Union Bank, Vijaya Bank, REC, Patni computer, Oracle Financial, L&T Finance, Kirloskar Oil Engines, Tata Communications, Tata Global Beverages, Sterlite Technologies, PTC India Financial and JB Chemicals

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks ended mostly in the red on Tuesday as investors awaited progress on Greek debt talks and waded through another batch of corporate results. Dow Jones lost 33 points, or 0.3%, and S&P 500 shed 1 points, or 0.1%. Nasdaq managed to gain 2 points, or 0.1%.

European stocks fell Tuesday, as investors awaited further news on Greek debt negotiations, after euro-zone finance ministers rejected an offer from private bondholders to help restructure the country's debt. Britain's FTSE 100 slid 0.5%, DAX in Germany dropped 0.3% and France's CAC 40 lost 0.5%.

Asian Markets

Today, the Asian markets are trading in the green with Strait times & KOSPI trading up by 0.9% each. Nikkei is trading up by 1%. While the other Asian markets including Shanghai, Hang Seng & Taiwan are closed. SGX Nifty is trading higher by 37 points.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee erased most of its intraday gains on US Dollar demand from oil refiners on Tuesday, after hitting a 10-week high, driven by local shares that rose on expectations the central bank will shift its policy towards boosting growth.

Commodities

Among the metals, only Zinc ended higher by 1.6% while Nickel fell by 1.7%. Copper and Aluminium ended lower by 0.8% and 0.2% respectively. Oil for March delivery decreased 63 cents to settle at $98.95 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery fell $13.80 to settle at $1,664.50 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India : IIP Core (YoY)

Outlook

The Indian Markets are likely to open higher following positive global cues. However, at higher levels it could witness some profit taking later during the day. Immediate resistance levels for the Nifty stand at 5200. Downside support to watch is at 5034. Among the sectoral indices, Banks, Capital Goods & Metals could do well.

Among the other potential risks include possible reversal in the USD-INR, crude oil and limited pass-through on domestic fuels. The short point is, one should not get carried away with January’s rally, which is partly driven by FII flows. Be vigilant and look at the bigger picture. In the short-term, things could turn bad again. Apart from the domestic risks mentioned, markets might be hit by unforeseen accidents on the external front, especially from Europe.

Dr. Subbu; thank you very much!

2012-01-24T19:20:00.000+05:30

Finally we have a 50bps of CRR cut and a dovish policy stance from the guv and this paves way for the much needed rate cuts in the oncoming policy review in early March 2012. The market seems to have provided a thumbs up to the announcement since it was on expected lines and now a rate cut in the next six months with a meaningfully slower economic activity in the next quarter making a case for a fast and swift cut in lending rate a possibility.

The notable runner for the day were the banking and beta sectors running like sprinters in a marathon match. Though there is good news, the positive effects would be long term in nature and nothing to running like being chased by a lion. But stock markets offer extremes and like extreme sports, is not really for the faint hearted. So we have excellent performances for the month of January 2012 from even the bigges such as SBI, L&T and IDFC all of whom have delivered 25% returns since the start of the year. Now to put things in perspective these stock were down 50% for the entire 2011 and the recovery is incomplete unless they double from their lowest levels; which is still far away. Nevertheless some consolation.

With expiry in the F&O segment tomorrow, expect some volatility and this being a short week, we could have more volatility on Friday too.

All in all, looks like we clocked close to 12% MTD (month-to-date) this month and by the looks of it, we could be closing very strongly by the end of this month. With January 2012 starting on such as positive note, it is likely that the entire 2012 could well close in the positive for equities; though very early to predict, the possibility of a firm positive close is very high.

Morning Bell.......The market is eagarly awaiting the credit policy to be declared today

2012-01-24T10:10:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The Sensex opened with 70 points gap up amid volatile trade on Tuesday. The market is eagarly awaiting the credit policy to be declared today. While opinions are mixed, some feel that the RBI is likely to cut cash reserve ratio (CRR), many still feel that for now the central bank will maintain a status quo with a dovish outlook

US & European Markets

U.S. stocks closed the day flat, after drifting above and below the break even line Monday. Investors grew jittery amid uncertainty surrounding Greek debt talks. Dow Jones closed down 12 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 gained 0.6 points, or 0.05%. Nasdaq moved down 3 points, or 0.1%.

European stocks rose on hopes that attempts to address the latest phase of the Greek debt crisis would be successful. Britain's FTSE 100 closed up 0.9%, DAX in Germany added 0.4% and France's CAC 40 ticked up 0.6%.

All the Indian ADRs ended in the green except Wipro, which fell by 0.9% while Satyam gained the most 3.3%. Tata Communications and MNTL rose by 2.8% each while ICICI Bank rose by 1.5%. Dr Reddys and HDFC Bank ended higher by 1.4% and 1.2% respectively while Infosys rose by 1%. Tata Motors rose marginally by 0.1%.

Asian Markets

Today, among the Asian indices, only the Japanese index Nikkei is open and is trading higher by 0.4%. SGX Nifty is trading higher by 19 points.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee jumped 21 paise to a two-and-a-half month high of Rs 50.10/11 against the US Dollar on the back of sustained capital inflows and weakness in the American currency overseas.

Commodities

Oil for February delivery slipped $2.28 to $98.11 a barrel. Oil for March delivery, which becomes the active contract at the close of trade Friday, lost $2.21 to $99.33. Gold futures for February delivery added $9.50 to $1,664.00 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India - Third Quarter Review of Monetary Policy

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open in the green and later trade in a range through the day. Support on Nifty is at 5,000 while resistance is at 5,100. Among the sectors, Bankex could do well today also while Oil & Gas stocks could underperform.

Sources- hdfc sec, moneycontrol

Waiting for Dr. Subbu

2012-01-24T09:42:00.002+05:30

What started out in a forceful manner is now showing its true colors. The earnings season is under full swing and there are many losers here than those standing tall; and though revenue numbers are really very strong, profits are plunging like falling nine pins. Well, this is that phase of the business cycle where companies would try to raise prices, curtail expenses and try to secure profits. While doing this, typically revenues would stagnate and so would profits – in fact profits would move into losses for companies.

This is typically the bottom of the cycle and we are getting very close to it. The stock prices would typically take a final dip (over and above the 40% falls that many counters saw). This is the best time to shop around for bargains. I would imagine that the first half of the calendar is the period where this phenomenon would be wide spread. Beyond this, most of the bargain hunters would emerge and if the cycle turning around becomes eminent stock would start to move faster than you can capture or participate.

The denial mode for investors where they expect prices (stocks) to correct/fall before they buy again would come into play. Alas it becomes too late and it goes on higher and higher. Finally the cycle repeats on the upside as well. And there is a set of investor who like foxes (those foolish varieties) who always curse the sour grapes. They curse when the market falls that they don’t make money and they curse the market when stocks rise since they did not participate.

So it is important that we don’t become these foxes.

Today, was a breather sort of a day; a day where despite everything moving the index did not do much. The churn was evident. The banks were dancing and shaking a leg. Did Dr. Subbu whisper something in the ears of these bankers. God alone knows. Tomorrow, Dr. Subbu would announce some thing like – CRR, SLR and repo Reverse repo etc. up, down or holding same and the market would dance, frown and move.

Such is the importance of this man, since he could slow or hasten your decision on what you do with your money.

We are waiting.

Morning Be!!....Sensex opened with 72 points gap down following disappointing results from Index heavyweight Reliance

2012-01-23T10:09:00.001+05:30

Indian Markets

The Sensex opened with 72 points gap down following disappointing results from Index heavyweight Reliance. The market recovered immediately to trade flat led by banks and technology stocks. Even the buyback offer from Reliance supported the market to cut losses.

The Sensex was down 17.17 points at 16,721.84 and the Nifty fell 6.3 points to 5,042.30.

Index heavyweight Reliance Industries lost over 4% due to disappointing results in Q3, but the downside capped led by company's buyback offer. The company's Q3 PAT fell 22% to Rs 4,440 crore QoQ; Board members of the company approved share buyback of Rs 10,440 crore and approved to buy back shares up to Rs 870/sh.

Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group's stocks like Reliance Infra, Reliance Power and Reliance Capital were down 1-2%.

Maruti Suzuki and L&T were down 1% & 0.25%, respectively ahead of results today.

US & European Markets

U.S. investors were unwilling to place any big bets on Friday, as key Greek debt talks remain unresolved. Despite that, all three indexes still closed out the week more than 2% higher on robust economic data and strong earnings.

European stocks closed slightly down snapping a four-session run of gains, as investors lost patience with Greek debt negotiations. Britain's FTSE 100 ticked down 0.2%, while DAX in Germany slipped 0.2% and France's CAC 40 fell 0.2%.

The Indian ADRS ended mixed with Dr Reddys and Satyam losing 3% and 1.8% respectively. Wipro and ICICI Bank gained 4.5% and 3.8% respectively while Tata Communications and Infosys rose by 1.2% each. HDFC Bank fell by 1.4% while MTNL rose by 1%. Tata Motors fell by 0.1%.

Asian Markets

Today, among the Asian indices, only the Japanese index Nikkei is open and is trading higher by 0.1%. SGX Nifty is trading higher by 6 points.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee erased early gains on Friday hurt by dollar buying from oil refiners and importers, but losses in the greenback versus other majors kept a lid on further weakness.

Commodities

Among the metal prices, Nickel gained 2.2% while Copper lost 1.3%. Zinc fell by 0.8% while Aluminium rose by 0.2%. Oil for February delivery slipped $2.28 to $98.11 a barrel. Oil for March delivery, which becomes the active contract at the close of trade Friday, lost $2.21 to $99.33. Gold futures for February delivery added $9.50 to $1,664.00 an ounce.

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open in the green and later witness some correction. Support on Nifty is at 4,980-4,900 while resistance is at 5,067-5,100. Among the sectors, Bankex could do well today also while FMCG stocks could under perform.

Source-: hdfc security, moneycontrol.com

Weekly Snapshot- Excellent start to the year so far; has RIL spoilt the party?

2012-01-21T11:48:00.001+05:30

The week gone by saw the Nifty taking out its near term resistances of 4899 and moving up further. It was the third consecutive week of gains with the Nifty gaining 3.75% W-o-W. Reflecting the positive sentiments, market breadth was positive in three out of the five trading sessions of the week.

Key Events

Indian Markets

India's inflation eased sharply in December. The wholesale price index rose 7.47% in December from a year earlier, compared with November's 9.11% increase, as food prices fell. India's annual food inflation rates for the week ended January 7 continue to hover around negative territory for the third consecutive week at 0.42 percent, due to a sharp dip in the prices of onion, vegetables, potato and wheat, prompting the Reserve Bank of India or RBI to cut interest rates in its monitory policy review next week. India's December exports rose an estimated annual 6.7% to $25 bn, while imports for the month were at $37.8 bn, leaving a trade deficit of $12.8 bn. Exports between April-December rose 25.8% to $217.6 bn. Trade Secretary Rahul Khullar said that that the trade deficit for the full fiscal year that ends in FY12, was estimated between $155 bn to $160 bn. A UN report stated that India's economic growth rate would remain subdued at 7.7% in 2012 and 7.9% in 2013 as downside risks have increased, mainly on account of problems in Europe and the US.

Outlook of the week

The start to the year 2012 from an equity markets perspective has no doubts been an excellent one, however, extrapolating this into linear fashion and thinking that the market would kiss 5500 and then 6000 would only meaning fooling in front of the moving road roller. Especially post the RIL results yesterday and outlook for the company remaining as green as ever, the market and more particularly FII’s and DII’s could particularly remain very ruthless and kill the stock to sub 700 levels in no time. And with that we could be ending the rally or the sustenance change over the next couple of weeks. For a sustenance of the rally we need more firm earnings numbers and not just one off’s since in weak sentiment times any bad news is blown out of proportion exactly the same way the good news is blown in bullish times.

So no time to get carried away and being more alert and opportunist in the current environment is the key to tide and consolidate the position in early 2012 at least. Expect some pressure in the following week and ofcourse some heavy stomach wrenching churn.

Sources:

HDFC Securities Weekly wrap of the Market

Right Horizons Equity Desk for Outlook for the coming week

"Investment Options In 2012"...Chat with Mr. Anil Rego (CEO. Right Horizons)

2012-01-20T14:15:00.001+05:30

Link- http://www.rediff.com/getahead/2012/jan/20chat-with-anil-rego-money-investment-options-in-2012.html

Time-: Friday, January 20 between 4 pm and 5 pm.

Financial planning is like a chess game. An investor will have to think in advance about investment option s/he would use and plan according to the options available. The year 2011 had many turning points for the retail investor in India. Growth in the Indian economy is being driven by consumption arising from a confluence of factors: a rising middle class, increasing urbanization and favorable demographics. As a result, retail and consumer goods and financial services have been among the most favored sectors for investors. While the main investment themes remain the same, experts noted that some new pockets of growth are also available now, such as education, healthcare, e-commerce, information technology and insurance.

Keeping all these points in mind, the retail investor will have to equip herself/himself to plan for her/his investments in the year 2012. Although there are many options like mutual funds, gold investments, tax efficient plans, the investor will have to choose which plans would suit her/his needs the best. The start of a new year is the best time to start afresh and use practical solutions to achieve your financial goals.

If you too are among the many who are confused as to which are the points to be kept in mind while choosing your investment option or are wondering which new avenues you must invest in this year then do join us for a chat with our financial expert, Anil Rego on Friday, January 20 between 4 pm and 5 pm.

About Anil Rego

Anil Rego is the Founder & CEO of Right Horizons, an end-to-end investment advisory and wealth management firm with multi-metro presence.

Morning Bell....Indian stock indices have extended their week's rally in early morning trade

2012-01-20T11:27:00.001+05:30

Indian Markets

The Indian stock indices have extended their week's rally in early morning trade, with the NSE Nifty firming above 5000 and the BSE Sensex crossing the 16,700 mark. The undercurrent remains positive on the back of strong inflows into Indian shares and debt this month. Also, there are signs of some cooling in inflation, providing ample room to the RBI to unload its series of rates hikes. The Government has also taken a few encouraging steps to push attract FDI and lift economic growth.

Finally, the overseas markets have been sending positive vibes all through the month. Barring the mass downgrade of eurozone members by the S&P, there has not been any major bad news from Europe or elsewhere. On the contrary, economic data coming out of the US, China and Germany have been encouraging.

The series of debt auctions by the fiscally strained euro area nations have also went off well. Greece is also likely to seal a deal on the proposed debt swap with the private creditors. So, all these ingredients have helped support the risk rally this month. It remains to be seen of the momentum can be sustained going forward

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks advanced for a third straight session on Thursday, rising to fresh six-month highs, thanks to solid gains in financial shares. Dow Jones added 46 points, or 0.4%, S&P 500 rose 6 points, or 0.5%, Nasdaq composite increased 19 points, or 0.7%. All three indexes closed at the highest levels since July.

European stocks rose on Thursday to the highest level since the beginning of last August, as Spain and France successfully sold EUR14.6 billion in government bonds. Britain's FTSE 100 ticked up 0.7%, DAX in Germany rose 1% and France's CAC 40 added 2%.

Asian Markets

Today, the Asian markets are trading in the green with Shanghai & Hang Seng trading higher by 0.4% each. Nikkei & Strait Times are trading up by 1.3% & 0.5% respectively, while Kospi is up by 0.9%. SGX Nifty is trading higher by 26 points.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee extended its gains to the sixth straight session vs. the US Dollar on Thursday, driven by robust dollar inflows and a surge in local equities, as risk appetite improved on news the IMF would step up its role in tackling the euro zone debt crisis.

Commodities

Among the metals, Copper gained the most (2.4%) followed by Nickel, which ended higher by 1.1%. Zinc and Aluminium rose by 0.8% and 0.2% respectively. Oil for February delivery slipped 20 cents to settle at $100.39 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery ticked down $5.40 to settle at $1,654.50 an ounce, losing momentum from earlier gains.

Outlook

The Indian Markets are likely to open higher following positive global cues. However, at higher levels it could witness some profit taking later during the day. Immediate upside targets for the Nifty remain at 5100. Downside supports to watch are at 4990-4931. Among the sectoral indices, Banks, Realty & Metals could do well.

Sources- hdfc security, india infoline

First cracks; but bada bhai to rescue?

2012-01-19T13:44:00.000+05:30

Today’s session looked liked some serious cuts were in the offing in the earlier part of the day; however, with the “bada bhai” Mukesh throwing his weight around, who can mess around. RIL appears set to announce a Buy Back program in the upcoming Q3FY12 result announcement this Friday, 20th January 2012 and the stock has hit 5% uptick almost easily through the day ending at a respectable INR 780 or thereabouts.

By the looks of it, we think that there appears that the buyback price should be in the range of INR 875-950 range and that would make a statement to the world telling that the ‘bhai’ actually thinks his company is more valuable than the market is pricing it. This also could just be a confidence booster; for starters if the share price drops then actually the buyback would be in place, and if it rises in expectation, then he actually need not make the full buy back. Either ways ‘bhai’ wins.

As a result of the surge in RIL share price today, the Nifty index stayed afloat for most part of the day since RIL alone held 20 pts, in a sessions where the index was down marginally 10points, thereby protecting a larger downside.

What is interesting though to see is the extent to which this fall can be stemmed by the big mover of the day. My sense is that we could be struggling to keep higher levels since even with nice earnings being reported by the IT biggies, we are not holding on to levels achieved. What happens when the banks report and ugly number, if at all, come out is everyone’s guess.

All, in all looks like an interesting build up of things to come; looks like.

"Investing in 2012-What should be the investment strategy for the new year?"......Chat with Mr. Anil Rego ( CEO, Right Horizons)

2012-01-18T14:52:00.002+05:30

Welcome to Chat@moneycontrol.com.

18 Jan- 16:00hrs

Will market do better in 2012 compare to 2011?

Where should we see Indian economy?

What we can expect from the budget?

Do you have same questions in your mind????????????

We would like you to participate in the live chat with Mr. Anil Rego { CEO & Founder, Right Horizons} & you can plan your investment decision for 2012.

Faster, higher & stronger!

2012-01-18T14:32:00.001+05:30

Over the last 11 trading sessions in January 2012 so far, only two or so marginal negative closes and today was a convincing pull shot over long on for six! What a T20 match this could turn out to be. The Shewags & Dhonis (read Jaiprakash & Tata Motors) are leading the attack from the front. Jaiprakash & Tata Motors have provided 20.85% & 21.45% returns in just 11 trading days so far in 2012 while the Nifty Index has provided only 7.65% during the same period.

Well, there are other scorers too, and the list in the 50 heros who are racing is long. These two are standing out. Yeah, the previous match (2011) was a mini disaster for these players, but if this continues then we are looking at some sort of redemption from these stocks.

The match has just begun and there is lot to come in the coming weeks / months. Near terms the earnings season has just started, so this is not the right time to uncork the bubbly and party. By mid-February 2012, will we know where we are heading amongst other things. In between, we also have to contend with the Dr. Subbu effect which returns (like a comet) on January 24, 2012.

Today a lot of beta got traded and I now wonder what we would be closing this week like. I only hope the positive momentum set this week retains for another three days, since with this; we could be closing on a really firm note. Plus, if the Dr. relents and cuts rate by a minor margin, then we could have it all the heading to 5100.

I would then turn on with caution and assess the situation. But for now, let us let our hair down and let the music flow.

Morning Be!!.......Indian stock indices have posted smart gains in early morning trade

2012-01-17T10:28:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The frontline Indian stock indices have posted smart gains in early morning trade, as investors welcome better-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP growth in China and a successful debt sale in France. Besides, inflation back home has cooled off considerably amid increasing expectations of a reversal in the RBI's hawkish monetary policy stance sooner or later.

Auto, Consumer Durables, Realty, Bankex, Power, Oil and Gas, IT, PSU, FMCG indices are the gainers.

The momentum seems to be in favour of the bulls so far, with most constituents of the main indices flaring up and most sectoral indices on the BSE and NSE advancing. The market breadth is positive as well.

Banking, Auto, Metals, Realty, Capital Goods and Power indices on the BSE are up 1-2%. The remaining sectoral indices on the BSE have gained 0.5% to 1%.

News of the day

- GoM to discuss FDI in aviation today

- Dewan Housing approves acquisition of stake in 'unlisted NBFC'

- Coal India to invite fresh bids for Mozambique blocks

- NCC mulls Infra arm, bond issue to raise money - DNA

-Times group in race to buy Neo cricket, Neo Sports, also eyes TV9

US and European Markets

The US markets were closed on Monday in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday.

European stocks closed slightly higher Monday, shrugging off Standard & Poor's downgrade of nine eurozone governments. Britain's FTSE 100 gained 0.4%, the DAX in Germany gained 1.3% and France's CAC 40 added 0.9%.

Asian Markets

Barring Shanghai, which is trading marginally lower by 0.1%, all the other Asian indices are trading in the green with Hang Seng & Nikkei trading higher by 1.5% & 0.6% respectively. Strait Times & Kospi are trading higher by 0.6% & 1.3% respectively, while Taiwan is trading in the green by 0.7%. SGX Nifty is trading lower by 2 points.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee reversed all early losses on Monday to end higher stoked by US Dollar inflows and boosted by a rebound in the local share market.

Commodities

Among the metals, Aluminium, Copper & Zinc gained 0.5%, 0.6% & 0.5% respectively, while Nickel ended lower by 1.7%.

Outlook

Today, the Indian market could open on a flat note and inch up later during the day. With the markets ending higher yesterday, the underlying trend remains up. Immediate upside targets are at 4910. Crucial supports to watch on the downside are at 4840-4800. Among the sectoral indices, Banking & IT are looking good, while Oil & Gas is looking weak & could underperform.

Sources-hdfcsec, india infoline

The EURO contagion does not effect!

2012-01-16T18:01:00.001+05:30

Just like in those Murphy’s law that we read “If things are going to go wrong, they will” no matter what you do. The corollary is also true; “if things are going to go right, they will”. Today session was fraught with a lot of heaviness of the bad news coming out during the weekend. The EURO nations being downgraded, the economy yet to warm up to the earnings being released. Infosys earnings not being enthusiastic from market perspective.

Yet the market today meandered between positive and negative and closed in the Green. Howz that, for a change. It now firmly moves, albeit slowly towards a firm closing for the month of January 2012. Now a great deal also depends upon how the other Big Brothers (TCS/RIL/ICICI/HDFC Bank) report their earnings cards.

I have a feeling that we could be drifting towards Mt. 5000 over the course of the next couple of weeks if all these minor ambushes are taken care of.

All in all, with each passing day, though the vulnerability exists, a great start so far to the year 2012 from a markets perspective. Hopefully, no Voodoo, happens till expiry and we should open the first 15 overs of the match with a good run rate. Elsewhere in Aussieland, there lies no hope. However, that is a different story altogether.

Morning Bell !!......The Sensex opened 70 points down following weak Asian cues, reacting to the spate of downgrades in nine eurozone countries by rating agency S&P last weekend

2012-01-16T10:56:00.002+05:30

Indian Markets

Indian frontline indices fell marginally in the opening deals, tracking a broadbased decline in Asian markets after the Standard & Poor's downgrade as many as nine Eurozone nations, raising fears over the region's long-running debt crisis and its implications for the global economy.

IT, Teck, FMCG indices are the gainers. Power, PSU, HC,Auto, Oil and Gas, Realty, Bankex, Metal indices are the losers.

Wipro, Bharti Airtel, TCS, Infosys, Maruti Suzki, were among the notable leaders in the Sensex and the Nifty.

RIL, ICICI Bank, Coal India, Ranbaxy, L&T, Sun Pharma, HDFC Bank, SBI, Tata Motors, Tata Steel,Hero MotoCorp, HDFC were among the notable losers in the Sensex and the Nifty.

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks finished in the red Friday as anxious investors braced for a string of credit rating downgrades for eurozone countries. JPMorgan Chase's disappointing fourth-quarter earnings also weighed on the market. Dow Jones dropped 49 points, or 0.4%, S&P 500 fell 6 points, or 0.5%, and Nasdaq composite lost 14 points, or 0.5%.

European stocks closed slightly lower, amid downgrade concerns. Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.5%, DAX in Germany dropped 0.6% and France's CAC 40 shed 0.1%. Standard & Poor's has downgraded the credit ratings of nine euro area governments, including AAA-rated France and Austria.

Asian Markets

Today the Asian indices are trading in the red with Nikkei and Kospi trading lower by 1.5% each while Strait Times is down 1.1%. Hang Seng and Taiwan are down by 1% each while Shanghai is down 0.8%. SGX Nifty is trading lower by 46 points.

Currencies

The Indian rupee surged to a near six-week high against the U.S. dollar Friday but gave up most of the gains in late trade on aggressive dollar buying by oil importers and as the euro weakened after an underwhelming Italian debt auction. Rupee ended 5 paise or 0.1% higher against US Dollar to Rs.51.52.

Key events to watch for today

China GDP

India Monthly WPI

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open on a negative note following weak Asian cues. Later it could take cues from the monthly inflation data to be announced today. Among the sectoral indices, Banking, Auto and Realty stocks could underperform while Healthcare and FMCG could do well.

Sources- hdfcsec, india infoline

Weekly Market Snapshot.....The Nifty broke out of the 4686-4800 trading range in the process and gained 2.51% W-o-W.

2012-01-14T11:01:00.001+05:30

Rally continues

Markets ended with gains for the second consecutive week. The Nifty broke out of the 4686-4800 trading range in the process and gained 2.51% W-o-W. Reflecting the positive sentiments, market breadth was positive in all the five trading sessions of the week.

The biggest gainers from the CNX 500 were Uttam Steel, LITL, IB Power and Rel Industrial Infra. The biggest losers were Sterling Bio, Indraprastha Gas, Infy, TCS and Network 18.

Indian Markets

Food prices fell for the second consecutive week as food inflation remained in the negative zone at (-)2.90 % for the week ended December 31, 2011. Food inflation, as measured by the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), stood at (-)3.36 % in the previous week. It was above 19 % in the corresponding week of 2010.

India's industrial production grew 5.9 per cent in November, aided by a robust 6.6 per cent growth in manufacturing output while production of capital goods continued to fall. Mining output growth remained in the negative territory in November too (-4.4 per cent as against -6 per cent in October and 6.9 per cent in November 2010) while capital-goods production, an indicator of business investment, shed 4.6 per cent, having risen 25.7 per cent a year earlier.

India's non-food credit offtake went up by just 16.1% to Rs 44.99 lakh crore during the year ended December 30, 2011, reflecting the impact of the high interest rate regime.

Key Sectoral Movement

Barring BSE IT, which fell by 6.9% all the other sectoral indices ended in the green. The top gainers were Realty, Metals, Power and Capital Goods, which rose by 13.1%, 9.8%, 8.6% and 8.5% respectively.

Outlook of the week

With the markets ending with gains for the second consecutive week, the short term trend continues to remain up. Immediate upside targets for the Nifty in the coming week are at 4910. Crucial supports to watch on the downside are at 4840-4800.

Sources- hdfcsec

Morning Be!!......Indian Indices trading in green

2012-01-13T10:13:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The BSE Sensex was 16,122, up 85 points over the previous close. It had earlier touched a day’s high of 16,168 and Today’s low of 16,107. It opened at 16,144.

NSE Nifty was quoting 4,854, up 22 points over the previous close. It has earlier touched a day’s high of 4,868 and a day’s low of 4,851. It opened at 4,861.

Infosys, Wipro, TCS, Sun Pharma, M&M, L&T, BHEL, NTPC, SBI, Coal India, Tata Motors, Tata Power, Sterlite Inds, Hindalco Inds, Tata Steel, , were among the notable leaders in the Sensex and the Nifty.

Hero MotoCorp, GAIL India, HDFC, DRREDDY, ITC were among the notable losers in the Sensex and the Nifty.The BSE Small-Cap and BSE Mid-Cap index was trading flat at 1%.

FMCG, Bankex, PSU, Realty, Metal, Oil and Gas, Auto, Power, IT and Oil and Gas indices are the gainers.

US and European Markets

Stocks sputtered on Thursday, but managed to close the day slightly higher. Dow Jones closed up 22 points, or 0.2%. S&P 500 gained 3 points, or 0.2%. Nasdaq moved up 14 points, or 0.5%.

Asian Markets

Today the Asian indices are trading in the green except Shanghai, which is down by 0.4%. Nikkei is trading higher by 1.1% while Kospi and Strait Times are up 0.6% each. Hang Seng and Taiwan are up 0.3% each. SGX Nifty is trading marginally lower by 4 points.

Currencies

The Indian rupee closed higher on Thursday vis-a-vis the US Dollar as foreign funds continued to invest in local debt, though weak domestic shares and dollar demand from oil importers put a lid on gains. The Reserve Bank of India probably sold dollars around the 51.74 rupee level in late trading, which further supported the currency, traders said.

Commodities

Among the metals, Copper gained 3.4% while Zinc rose by 1.6%. Aluminium and Nickel ended higher by 1.3% and 1% respectively. Oil for February delivery lost $1.73 to $99.14 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery gained $8.10 to $1,647.70 an ounce.

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open on a flat to negative note and remain rangebound. Support on Nifty is at 4,800 while resistance is at 4,910. Among the sectoral indices, IT and Oil & Gas stocks could underperform while Metals and FMCG could do well.

Sources- hdfc security, India infoline

Morning Be!!.......Indian indices slipped in the early morning trade, hurt by the disappointing Q3 results in USD terms from IT major Infosys.

2012-01-12T10:23:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The frontline Indian stock indices have slipped in the early morning trade, hurt by the disappointing Q3 results in USD terms from IT major Infosys. The Bangalore-based software giant has also announced a muted guidance for the fourth quarter.

The Infosys stock is down sharply along with other IT peers like TCS, Wipro and HCL Tech. The IT index on both BSE and NSE is down more than 4%. If you keep aside the IT basket, the rest of the market is not doing that badly. There are no major losers in the two main equity benchmarks except the software companies.

Markets took a breather after Tuesday’s stellar rally as investors appeared reluctant to commit ahead of the IIP data and Infosys results. IIP for November is expected to rebound from a disastrous October reading. One has to see if there is any upward revision of the October print of -5.1%.

Weekly food inflation is also due today. It is likely to stay in the negative zone, mostly owing to the statistical phenomenon called ‘base effect’. more important will be the inflation report for December, which is due on Monday.

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks recovered from earlier losses to end little changed on Wednesday as concerns about Europe's weak economy and debt crisis weighed on the market. The Dow Jones industrial average lost 13 points, or 0.1%, to end at 12,449. The S&P 500 edged up less than 1 point to 1,292. The Nasdaq gained 8 points, or 0.3%, to 2,711.

European equity markets dropped on Wednesday, as energy stocks fell along with crude prices and as concerns about the euro-zone sovereign debt crisis weighed on sentiment. While DAX ended lower by 0.2%, FTSE & CAC ended lower by 0.5% & 0.2% respectively.

Asian Markets

Today the Asian indices are trading on a mix note. While Shanghai & Nikkei are trading lower by 0.6% & 0.7% respectively. Hang Seng, Kospi & Strait Times are trading in the green by 0.2% each. Taiwan is trading marginally higher by 0.1%. SGX Nifty is trading down by 6 points.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee snapped a three-day rising streak to end down on Wednesday, after see-sawing through the day, tracking choppy shares, with Dollar demand from oil importers and a weak euro weighing. A fragile European economy could further hurt sentiment and keep investors at bay, dragging the rupee lower against the dollar in coming days.

Commodities

Among the metals, Aluminium & Copper gained 0.3% & 0.7% respectively, while Zinc & Nickel ended lower by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. Oil for February delivery slipped 51 cents to end at $101.71 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery rose $9 to $1,640.50 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India - IIP

India -WPI

Outlook

Today, the Indian market are likely to open marginally lower and takes cues from the Infosys Q3FY12 results, the IIP numbers for the month of November and weekly inflation data due today. Among the sectoral indices, Realty, Metals & Banks look good, while FMCG could underperform. Better than expected results from Infosys could drive the IT index higher today.

Sources- HDFC SEC, India Infoline

The Opening batsman comes to bat tomorrow!

2012-01-11T16:42:00.000+05:30

The market is just waiting like the stadium which is full just before the 1st ball of the match is about to be bowled. Tomorrow Infosys Technologies opens it account on the first delivery of the match. And the market is waiting to see how confident the batsman is. And with the opening for tomorrow, we will then have all the participants of the parade coming in to show their wares.

If the firmness of the session preceding today is any indication and also today’s session; it seems apparent that we should be having a bang of an earnings season. Not because there will be absolute strength in the earnings per se, but because expectations are so beaten down that relatively we could be saying – “not bad” after all.

Today’s session was an eerie calm session which typically precedes the excitement that would begin soon. Am sure, all of the analyst and pundits on TV channels would be jumping and taking the hairs to the final shreds to see what lies ahead for the IT industry in particular and market in general tomorrow. Of course the print guys would bombard us with a long transcript and analysis a day later.

A very interesting file which stacks up while the Nifty has remained where it was in the past 5 months the constituents were all over the place. This makes the life of Fund managers (including – your’s truly) very difficult. The easiest way would be to buy the ETF and sleep tight. But of course we cannot do that and besides in challenge lies opportunity. But get it wrong and your are toast.

So my sense is this opportunity is going to be present in the next 6 months too; READ: that there will be enough things that will go right and wrong with Nifty companies and am sure, like in the past, we would get it right this time too.

So bear with us; and yes please don’t miss this bus. I am sure that by December 2012 we could be seeing double digit (high teens) type of returns for equity asset class. So please pitch in and get more money into this.

Morning Be!!.....Indian stock indices appear to be in 'no-man's-land' in early morning trade

2012-01-11T10:54:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The frontline Indian stock indices appear to be in 'no-man's-land' in early morning trade after a strong rally in the preceding session, as investors prefer to stay on the sidelines ahead of an important trading day on Thursday. Markets will digest the latest data on industrial production besides results from finance major HDFC and IT titan Infosys.

Despite the sluggish trend in Large-Cap shares, the market breadth is positive due to persistent gains in the broader indices. The BSE Small-Cap and the BSE Mid-Cap indices have gained for a third successive session this week. The two broader market benchmarks are up ~0.5% each at the moment.For India, the most eagerly awaited events this month is the January 24 RBI policy meeting. Meanwhile, the prospects for the Indian economy continue to look rather glum in the face of mixed bag macro-economic numbers.

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks advanced Tuesday, on the back of gains in global markets, as investors grew optimistic following upbeat comments about Europe and a decent start to quarterly corporate results. Dow Jones rose 70 points, or 0.6%, and S&P 500 added 11 points, or 0.9%. Both indexes finished at their highest levels since July. Nasdaq composite increased 26 points, or 1%.

Tuesday's broad move higher came as investors found comfort in Fitch Rating's comments about Europe being on the right path toward solving its debt problems.

The Census Bureau reported that wholesale inventories for the month of November rose 0.1%.

Asian Markets

Today the Asian indices are trading in the green except Kospi and Shanghai, which are down by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. Nikkei and Hang Seng are trading higher by 0.2% each while Strait Times and Taiwan are up by 0.1% each. SGX Nifty is trading higher by 4.5 points.

Currencies

The Indian rupee rose to a one-month high against the US Dollar on Tuesday, boosted by a spate of fund inflows from overseas investors into high-yielding local debt. The gains were accentuated by thin volumes, highlighting the sharp swings that have resulted from a recent central bank rule limiting speculative trades in the currency market. Also comments from a federal government official that Moody's had upgraded India's short-term country ceiling on foreign currency bank deposits boosted sentiments.

Commodities

Among the metals, Aluminium gained the most (3.7%) followed by Zinc, which rose by 3%. Nickel and Copper ended higher by 2.8% and 1.9% respectively.Oil for February delivery added 93 cents to settle at $102.24 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery gained $23.40 to settle at $1,631.50 an ounce.

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open on a flat to positive note. 4,800 on the nifty holds as a strong support and until this level gets breached the uptrend could continue. Among the sectoral indices, Metals and IT stocks could do well.

Source- HDFC SECURITY, India Infoline

Surprised by this pullback?

2012-01-11T10:27:00.000+05:30

While all doomsayers on Indian equities have indeed pretty much written off our stock market in 2012 citing amongst all; expensive relative valuation, earnings downgrade, sluggish macro and continued & persistent inflation etc., the markets YTD (since Jan 2, 2012) now returns around 4.9% and not bad for a beginning, I might add.

The earnings season kicks off tomorrow with the Infosys Technologies reporting and looks like it would be a cracker of an earnings season. What everybody is really paranoid about is the future earnings and outlook for the markets; but sometimes it is human psyche that in the penchant for looking ahead and at opportunities we miss out on what we have today, also forget to collect the hanging fruit which could have been easily savored.

Anyways, on the session that happened today; I must admit that am sure that the naysayers would be wanted it desperately for the markets to drift down, but with every passing hour the market powered it’s way up and the bulls would be happy and the doomsayers wanting to forget the session. The real wonder would happen if over the course of the earnings season (over the next couple of weeks) we drift upwards and close January 2012 by double digit returns. In that event, the question that could come up is – does it really set the tone for the year ahead?

Just to recall, 2011 was just the kind of start we did not want; with the market tanking around 11% in a single month and post that we all know what had happened, so for all those who say that equities are stupid asset class, are just for punting and you always lose money, it could be a golden opportunity to make a killing.

Early days still; since December 2012 is far away. For now it appears that we could close January 2012 with decent gains.

Morning Bell !!...Key indices trading in green with positive Asian market cues

2012-01-10T11:34:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The key Indian stock indices have climbed in early morning trade with the BSE Sensex up well over 100 points and the NSE Nifty reclaiming the 4,750 mark. Market breadth is fairly positive as the broader indices have extended gains from the previous session. Most sectoral indices on the BSE are trading in the positive terrain.

US and European Markets

Stocks edged higher on Monday as investors continued to keep a close eye on events in Europe and geared up for the start of fourth-quarter corporate earnings announcements. Dow Jones rose 33 points, or 0.3%, to end at 12,393. S&P 500 added 3 points, or 0.2%, to 1,281. Nasdaq composite rose 2 points, or 0.2%, to 2,676.

European stock markets finished lower Monday, as German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy failed to inspire market participants with their latest meeting, while downbeat German data added to the weaker tone. Britain's FTSE 100 and DAX in Germany both lost 0.7% and France's CAC 40 eased 0.3%.

Asian Markets

Today the Asian indices are trading in the in the green with Kospi trading higher by 1.8% while Taiwan is up 1.1%. Shanghai is up by 0.8% while Strait Times is up 0.6%. Nikkei is up 0.5%. SGX Nifty is trading higher by 23 points.

Currencies

the Indian Rupee rose for the second day to close at nearly three-week high of 52.51/52 against the Dollar, up by 20 paise on sustained selling of the US currency by exporters.

Commodities

Among the metals, Copper fell by 0.4% while Aluminium gained the most (2%). Zinc and Nickel rose by 1.4% and 1.2% respectively. Oil for February delivery fell 25 cents to settle at $101.31 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery declined $8.70 to $1,608.10 an ounce.

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open in the green on the back of global cues and positive European news. Among the sectoral indices, Auto, Banking and IT stocks could do well.

Sources- hdfc security, india infoline

Morning Be!!....Sensex down 99 points to 15,750.08 and the Nifty slipped 29 points to 4,718.30

2012-01-09T10:19:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The Indian main indices have lost ground early on with the NSE Nifty dipping below the 4750 mark while the BSE Sensex lost 100 points. But, the broader market is faring relatively better and therefore the market breadth is even.

Gail India is trading slightly up after it was inducted into the Sensex. Gail replaces Jaiprakash Associates, which is in the red after market regulator SEBI penalized its promoters for alleged insider trading. Reliance Power is up on reports that Northern Coalfields (NCL) has agreed to surrender land required to mine two blocks attached to the Sasan ultra mega power plant.

This week is crucial as the Government will announce the latest IIP and inflation data. Also, the Q3 earnings season will kick off in the right earnest. Infosys and HDFC will release their numbers on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the Election Commission is likely to reschedule the first phase of the Uttar Pradesh assembly polls. It was to begin on February 4. The new date of the first phase will be announced shortly.

US and European Markets

US equity benchmarks pared weekly gains on Friday despite an encouraging report on the country's labour market. Investors chose to focus on the worsening credit crisis in the eurozone. The euro dropped below $1.27 for the first time since September 2010, sliding 1.7% for the week. The dollar index rose above 81, hitting one-year high. Most European stock indices fell on Friday as Italy’s 10-year government bond yield surged above 7%. The ECB reportedly intervened in the secondary markets to buy Spanish and Italian bonds. A yield of more than 7% is generally viewed as unsustainable for the debt-strapped governments in the euro area.

Asian Markets

Today the Asian indices are trading in the red except Shanghai, which is up by 1.3%. Kospi is trading lower by 1.5% while Strait Times is down 1%. Hang Seng and Taiwan are down by 0.8% and 0.7% respectively. SGX Nifty is trading lower by 33 points.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee closed stronger vis-a-vis the Dollar on Friday, ending the week with a 0.7% gain as foreign investors bought local debt.

Commodities

Among the metals, Zinc lost 0.3% while Copper gained 0.7%. Aluminium and Nickel rose by 0.5% each. Oil for February delivery lost 53 cents to $101.28 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery fell $3.30 to $1,616.80 an ounce.

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open on a flat to negative note. It could trade in a range with a negative bias. Among the sectoral indices, Banking and Oil & Gas stocks could underperform while FMCG stocks could do well.

Sources- HDFC Security/ India Infoline/ Rh Morning market update

Weekly Snap shot !!!....India's benchmark share indices ended nearly 3% up

2012-01-07T17:46:00.000+05:30

Markets end the first week of 2012 in the green. India's benchmark share indices ended nearly 3% up in the week to January 7, led by banks and capital goods shares. While Sensex gained 394 pts or 2.6% to end at 15,849, Nifty was up 123 pts or 2.7% to end at 4,747.

The biggest gainers from the CNX 500 were TSC India, NFL, RCF and Tata Metallics. The biggest losers were Sterling Biotech, Hero MotoCorp, TVS Motors and Baja Auto.

Key Events

Global Markets

Euro region inflation slowed for the first time in five months in December, giving the European Central Bank room to lower borrowing costs further as the economy edges toward a recession. The inflation rate in the 17-nation euro area fell to 2.8% from 3% in November as per the European Union's statistics office report.

Singapore's economy shrank for the second time in three quarters as manufacturing eased, increasing pressure on policy makers to spur growth as they forecast slower expansion this year. Gross domestic product fell an annualized 4.9% in the fourth quarter of 2011 from the previous three months, when it climbed a revised 1.5%.

China's December PMI data ceased its sliding trend for two consecutive months and ended 2011 with a slight rebound. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), a preliminary readout of the country's manufacturing activity, rebounded to 50.3% in December, indicating a stabler slowing trend for the country's economic growth.

Indian Markets

Private equity (PE) and venture capital (VC) investments in India rose 41% in 2011 over the previous year, the highest since 2007 as a sluggish capital market and costlier debt led Indian companies to approach these investors for fresh funds.

India's food price index declined for the first time in nearly six years as costs of pulses and vegetables fell, raising hopes that December's headline inflation rate could drop below 9% for the first time in more than a year. The fuel inflation accelerated to 14.6%, government data released during the week showed.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought shares worth Rs 381.42 crore on 5th January 2012, as per provisional data from the stock exchanges. FII inflow totaled Rs 775.78 crore in three trading sessions on 3 to 5 January 2012, as per provisional data from the stock exchanges.

India raised iron ore export duties to 30% from 20% as it seeks to conserve supplies for the domestic steel industry. The new rate of 30% is applicable on both fine and lumps.

Key Sectoral Movement

Except BSE FMCG all other sectoral indices ended in the green. The top gainers were Capital Goods, PSU, Bankex and Metals, which rose by 6.2%, 6.2%, 6% and 5.4% respectively.

Outlook of the week

The focus for the next few weeks would be the Q3 results and guidance from the company managements on outlook for the remaining part of the year and for the next year. The market has been trading in a tight range of 4,700-4,800 on the Nifty. A breakout either way would decide future course of the market.

Source- HDFC Security

Morning Be!!.....The frontline Indian stock indices advanced at the opening bell

2012-01-05T10:45:00.001+05:30

Indian Markets

The frontline Indian stock indices advanced at the opening bell and are trading just a tad higher in early morning trade with the BSE Sensex within striking distance of the 16,000 mark and the NSE Nifty above 4750.

The market breadth is positive as broader indices too have posted slim gains in early morning trade. India VIX is flat and most sectoral indices are trading in the positive territory.

The early bounce across world stocks has tapered off a wee bit as old worries have returned to haunt global investors. Auto shares may remain in the spotlight as the 11th Indian Auto Expo kicks off today

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks clawed back from earlier losses to close mixed on Wednesday amid renewed concerns about the debt crisis in Europe.Dow Jones rose 22 points, or 0.2%, according to early tallies. S&P 500 edged up less than 1 point, while Nasdaq lost less than 1 point.

Asian Markets

Today the Asian indices are trading in the green except Nikkei and Shanghai, which are down by 0.6% and 0.3% respectively. Taiwan is trading higher by 0.3% while Strait Times, Kospi amd Hang Seng are up by 0.2% each. SGX Nifty is trading lower by 3 points.

Currencies

The Indian rupee ended higher for the second straight session on Wednesday after trading in a narrow range, on dollar sales by some foreign banks, although a retreat in the euro and a fall in domestic equities capped gains.

Commodities

Among the metals, Copper fell by 0.2% while Aluminujm and Nickel gained 1.7% and 1.4% respectively. Zinc rose by 0.7%.Oil for February delivery fell 38 cents to $102.58 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery rose $12.70 to $1,613.20 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India - WPI Data y-o-y change

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open on a flat to positive note and later trade in a range. Support on Nifty is at 4,720 while resistance is at 4,800-4,840 levels. Among the sectoral indices, Capital Goods could do well.
Sources- HDFC SECURITY, RH Morning Report

Slow run rate would now ki!!

2012-01-05T10:37:00.000+05:30

The days’ progress is now looking like it will kill the momentum. Barring the sporadic swings in isolated stocks such as Engineer’s India which was up whopping 10% at peak today, lost the fizz post the market weakness and finally closed up around only 3.4%. The mid-caps are now turning into ‘MAD CAPS’ running helter skelter, with no really direction; and it is extremely difficult to put your hands on any specific bunch or sectors which would stand out.

For now it is too early to tell whether January 2012 would turn out to be solidly up or precariously down, however, that the momentum could be up or down would be decided in the middle over’s of the innings. For now it is time to nudge the days and pick up and be ready for the earnings season which is up on us in less than 10 days.

Will keep it short for now. The market closed down after two days of strength, and thankfully losing only 0.33%, some consolation. The tax season has started and we just hope that ELSS schemes (those dreaded ones) should marginally impact the market. Wishful thinking? Maybe.

Sleep tight.!!!

Second ball Six!

2012-01-04T18:18:00.000+05:30

Imagine a T20 match between India and Australia and after having conceded horrendous amount of runs in the first inning of the match to Aussies, we come into bat and in the first over first ball we are off to a two run start and on the second ball of the innings Shewag hits a six. There are only two emotions that a cricket fans has, either he continues this way and the match would be over in the 16th over, or this guy would do a hara kiri and lose it in the next ball.

Now replace the cricket enthusiast with an investor. With horrendous first innings in 2011 now we are kind of getting a good start; but we must remember that 2 balls is not the innings but there are another 118 balls to be bowled. So any enthusiasm with the kind of performance since the beginning of year 2012 (essentially two trading days) must translate into a few weeks and then a few months to make any meaningful returns or match of the situation.

Today’s session was really kind of redemption of the really badly beaten folks, must I say. The likes of infra, realty and to an extent financial institutions stole the show. There was not big evidence of across the board buying. Also, as expected the volumes are yet to pick up in any meaningful manner. So what we could be seeing is essentially the nibblers or the dime pickers trying to salvage some money from the wreckage. But often one does find a lot of good stuff in leftover of hurricane or war torn zone.

Not that we have really seen one, but it just appears to be so, or made out to be.

In closing, I would now really see if this initial momentum of a couple of days translates into couple of weeks and then the whole of January 2012. If that does happen, then indeed we are really setting up for a match.

Morning Be!!.....Indian stock indices struggling for direction in early morning trade

2012-01-04T10:09:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The frontline Indian stock indices appear to be struggling for direction in early morning trade after opening slightly positive. The BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty are trading just in the red, or almost unchanged after advancing smartly in the previous two sessions. At the same time, the broader indices seem to be holding on to modest gains, resulting in a positive market breadth.

The Small-Cap and Mid-cap index was trading flat.

Consumer Durables, Oil and Gas, Power, PSU and IT indices are the gainers.

FMCG, Bankex, HC, Metal, Auto, Realty indices are the losers.

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks rallied on Tuesday, kicking off the new year on a high note, as investors welcomed upbeat reports on economic activity around the world. Dow Jones jumped 180 points, or 1.5%, to end at 12,397. S&P 500 gained 19 points, or 1.5%, to 1,277. Nasdaq added 43 points, or 1.7%, to 2,649. The gains came after reports on manufacturing growth in China and India came in better than expected over the weekend. On Tuesday, a report showed U.S. manufacturing activity grew at a faster rate in December.

European stocks also rose. Britain's FTSE 100 added 2%, DAX in Germany added 1.5% and France's CAC 40 gained 0.4%.

Asian Markets

Today the Asian indices are trading in the green except Shanghai and Kospi, which are down by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively. Nikkei is trading higher by 1.2% while Strait Times is up 0.3%. Hang Seng and Taiwan are up by 0.2% each. Asian stocks are up, as investor risk appetite returned after upbeat U.S. and European economic data boosted global shares and commodities and hopes for improved growth outlook grew despite worries over the euro zone debt crisis. SGX Nifty is trading higher by 2 points.

Currencies

Snapping its three session losing string, the rupee today gained 9 paise to close at 53.21/22 against the dollar amid a strong rally in local equities and fresh dollar selling by exporters.

Commodities

Among the metals, Aluminium gained the most (2.1%) while Copper rose by 1.5%. Nickel and Zinc ended higher by 0.9% and 0.3% respectively. Oil for February delivery added $4.20, or 4.2%, to $103.03 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery rose $33.70 to end at $1,600.50 an ounce.

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open in the green on the back of positive global cues and inch up further during the day. Among the sectoral indices, Banking and Oil & Gas stocks could do well.

Source- HDFCSEC, Rh morning market update

Morning Bell !!..........Sensex jumps 247 point on stronger global cues

2012-01-03T10:15:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The good tidings of the new year continue in to the second trading session with the main stock indices extending gains from the previous session on the back of encouraging data on the manufacturing sector from across the globe. Market breadth is healthy and India VIX fell as much as 4%.

Infosys, Wipro, Bajaj Auto, DRREDDY, Maruti, L&T, ICICI Bank, HDFC, Ranbaxy, Tata Steel, DLF, BHEL, Tata Power, Tata Motors, SBI, HUL were among the notable leaders in the Sensex and the Nifty.

M&M, BPCL, Sesa Goa were among the notable losers in the Sensex and the Nifty.

The BSE Small-Cap and BSE Mid-Cap index was trading flat.

Metal, Bankex, Realty, Power, PSU, HC, Auto, FMCG, Oil and Gas, IT indices are the gainers.

Asian Markets

Today the Asian indices are trading in the green with Kospi and Shanghai trading higher by 2.1% and 1.9% respectively. Taiwan is up by 1.3%. SGX Nifty is trading higher by 43 points.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee on Monday lost 20 paise to the Dollar to close at a fresh two-week low of 53.30/31, ending the first day of trading in the new year on a subdued note. Increased demand for the dollar from importers and concerns over the government’s widening fiscal deficit weighed on the sentiment.

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open in the green on the back of positive global cues and inch up further during the day. Among the sectoral indices, Capital Goods, IT and Oil & Gas stocks could do well while Auto stocks could underperform.

Source- Rh Morning market update, HDFCSEC

On a positive note!

2012-01-02T17:20:00.000+05:30

At the outset; I would want to wish each one of you a Healthy, fun filled, financial rewarding (very important) and joyous 2012 and beyond.

The market ended today on a positive note and this could have an important bearing on what lies on the year ahead. For one, I believe that thinking intuitively should come very naturally, yet it, like art is never mastered. Also, though the fundamentals of logic and intuitive thinking are very easy to understand, they are extremely difficult to put to practice. Remember, even ace swimmers do panic when put in situations which they have not witnessed before and drown.

Staying calm, staying focused and working more hard (as opposed to working hardly) when times are tough is the only way to tide over the extra-ordinary circumstances that present us.

The implications of positive markets for today might not mean much in terms of forecasting what lay ahead for the entire 200+ trading days ahead; however it does have bearing in the light of what has happened over the past 52 weeks of trading we have seen. I must admit that looking behind over several 52 week period back to 2008, which has been a longish enough period the fatigue factor has indeed set-in, in the minds of the investors.

Therein lies the opportunity, people (often seasoned) drop guard in these times. They resign to the fact that we are in for an extended period of bad phase and abandon all hope. There is where opportunity lies. Ultimately, life is a matter of seeking arbitrage. One who has spotted a wide gap, whether it be financial, spiritual or material; he would make a killing.

Finally, the part where all you guys would push me to; to forecast what lay ahead. I would stick my neck out and come out strong in favour of equities for the year 2012. While I do not foresee runaway bull rally from the word go; I would think that we will end 2012 with respectable returns for the equities markets. This means that for people who could not make money in 2011, this is an excellent time to make it. For those waiting to enter, the time could not have been better.

Get in, sit back and enjoy the ride.

Morning Bell !!!....The Indian markets opened the first trading session of 2012

2012-01-02T10:24:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The Indian markets opened the first trading session of 2012 on a rather subdued note before climbing marginally in early morning trade. The Advance-Decline ratio on the BSE is favorable for the bulls so far as the broader indices are keeping pace with their Large-Cap peers. Overall, the undertone remains cautious amid persistent challenges confronting the domestic as well as global economy.

The BSE Mid-Cap and Small-Cap index was trading flat. Auto, Consumer Goods, Metal, PSU, Bankex,HC, Power indices are the gainers. Realty, IT and FMCG indices are the losers.

RIL, ICICI Bank, L&T, M&M, Coal India, Bharti Airtel, BHEL, RCOM, Maruti,ONGC,Sterlite were among the notable leaders in the Sensex and the Nifty.

Infosys, DLF, Tata Steel, Tata Power, HUL, NTPC, Sun Pharma,HDFC Bank, HDFC, were among the notable losers in the Sensex and the Nifty.

US and European Markets

Stocks finished little changed on Friday. Dow Jones fell 69 points, or 0.6%. The S&P 500 dropped 5 points, or 0.4%, and Nasdaq fell 9 points, or 0.3%. At its peak in April, S&P had climbed more than 8%. Dow, meanwhile, rose 5.5% for the year, and Nasdaq lost 1.8%.

European stock markets ended in the green on the last day of the year. Britain's FTSE 100 finished up 0.1%, Germany's DAX edged up 0.9% and France's CAC 40 rose 0.4%. But for the year dominated by Europe's debt crisis, all three indexes ended in the red.

Asian Markets

Today the Asian indices are trading in the red except Shanghai, which is up 1.2%. Taiwan and Kospi are down by 0.9% and 0.3% respectively. SGX Nifty is trading higher by 14 points.

Currencies

The Indian rupee appreciated by 0.2% on Friday vs the Dollar.

Commodities

Among the metals, Copper and Nickel gained 2.5% and 1.7% respectively. Zinc ended higher by 1.4% while Aluminium rose by 0.4%. Oil for February delivery fell 82 cents to settle at $98.83 a barrel. Crude prices rose more than 8% in 2011, marking the third consecutive years of increases. Gold futures for February delivery added $25.90, or 1.7%, to settle at $1,566.80 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India - HSBC India manufacturing PMI

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open in the green and take cues from European markets. Among the sectoral indices, Metal stocks could outperform.

Source- RH Morning market update, HDFC SEC

Closing Be!! .... fourth consecutive negative daily close for the Sensex/Nifty

2011-12-30T18:34:00.000+05:30

Markets slide lower

Markets began the new Jan derivative series on a weak note. The main indices were dragged lower by Reliance as it touched a new 52-week low. It was the fourth consecutive negative daily close for the Sensex/Nifty.

Statistics

While the BSE Sensex finally closed 89.01pts or 0.57% lower at 15,454.92, the Nifty lost 21.95pts or 0.47% to close at 4,624.3. Broad market indices however ended higher as the BSE Mid Cap and Small Cap indices gained 0.31% and 0.09% respectively. Market breadth was negative as the A/D ratio was 0.91:1 on the BSE. NSE cash turnover was Rs.6,685crs. Vs. Rs.8,926crs. in the previous session.

Sectoral and Stock movers

The sectoral indices ended with a mixed bag. While the top gainers were the BSE Healthcare and IT indices, the top losers were the BSE Oil and Gas, Realty, Bankex and Metal indices. The top gainers from the BSE 30 were Infy, Coal India and BHEL. The top losers were Reliance, Jindal Steel, DLF and Tata Steel.

Foreign markets

Major European markets like the CAC ( 0.19%) and DAX ( 0.32%) are trading higher at 16:28 IST. The FTSE is however trading lower (-0.18%).

Major Asian markets have closed on a mixed note. While the Nikkei (0.67%) and Hang Seng ( 0.2%) have ended higher, the Straits (-1.0%) and Taiwan (-0.04%) indices have ended lower.

Way forward

With the markets drifting down further for the fourth consecutive session, immediate lows to watch are now at 4602. A close below these supports could see the Nifty heading towards the next major lows of 4531. On the upside, immediate resistance is at 4688.

Sources-HDFC SEC

Morning Bell !!!.....The Sensex rebounded after a fall in previous three sessions

2011-12-30T10:39:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

Positive global cues have helped the main Indian stock indices open with a positive bias on the last trading session of what has been a tumultuous year for the domestic markets.

However, there is no certainty on whether the early morning gains could be sustained throughout the day as most of the headwinds that weighed on the markets have not been dealt with completely. Investors will continue to be cautious in the early part of 2012.

The outcome of state elections in Uttar Pradesh could have a significant bearing on policy formulations by UPA II, including the Union Budget. It might also change some political and strategic equations at the Centre. So, all eyes will be fixed on the UP elections in the days and weeks to come.

Talking of politics, USA, the world's largest economy, will also hold Presidential elections later in 2012. A leadership change is also in the offing in China. Elections are scheduled in Russia, Iran, Egypt, France, Greece and South Korea among others.

The Lokpal Bill could not clear the Rajya Sabha due to resistance from several parties, including Trinamool Congress. The passage of the Bill will be in a limbo till the next session. The Lok Sabha was adjourned sine die while the Rajya Sabha ended abruptly at the stroke of midnight without the House taking a vote on the Lokpal Bill.

State-run oil companies are mulling a hike in petrol prices. The proposed move may still be nixed by the Government in view of the upcoming state polls.

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks rose on Thursday in a thinly-traded session as investors focused on signs of strength in the economy before calling it a year. Dow Jones rose 136 points, or 1.1%, to end at 12,287. S&P 500 added 13 points, or 1.1%, to 1,263. Nasdaq gained 24 points, or 0.9%, to 2,614.

European stock markets closed higher Thursday in thin trading conditions, helped by gains for Wall Street and after an Italian debt auction was taken in stride. Britain's FTSE 100 added 0.8%, DAX in Germany rose 0.9% and France's CAC 40 rose 1.1%.

Asian Markets

Today all the Asian indices are trading in the green except Strit Times, which is down by 0.3%. Shanghai and Hang Seng are trading higher by 1% and 0.4% respectively. Nikkei and Taiwan are up 0.3% and 0.1% respectively. SGX Nifty is trading higher by 36.5 points.

Currencies

The Indian rupee ended steady on Thursday vs the Dollar, recovering from the day's lows on suspected central bank intervention and dollar-selling by nationalised banks for a second day in a row.

Commodities

Among the metals, Nickel and Copper lost 2.5% and 1.9% respectively. Zinc and Aluminium fell by 0.5% and 0.4% respectively. Oil for February delivery rose 31 cents to $99.05 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery fell $23.20 to $1,540.90 an ounce. Gold prices have softened due to a stronger dollar.

Key events to watch for today

India - CPI Industrial Workers data

US - Fed Balance Sheet

China - PMI Manufacturing Index

Italy - PPI data

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open in the green following strong global cues and could trade in a range through the day. Support on Nifty is at 4,600-4,540 while resistance is at 4,720-4,800. Among the sectoral indices, Auto stocks could outperform while Metal stocks look weak.

Sources- RH Morning data, HDFC SEC

Closing Bell !!...Nifty closes below 4,700 on the last derivative expiry of year 2011

2011-12-29T19:59:00.000+05:30

Markets ended lower amidst a volatile trading session on Thursday, weighed down by weak Asian cues early in the day and a depreciating rupee, with index heavyweights Reliance Industries and Infosys leading the fall.

Statistics

While the BSE Sensex finally closed 184 pts or 1.2% lower at 15,544, the Nifty lost 60 pts or 1.3% to close at 4,646. Broad market indices too ended lower as the BSE Mid Cap and Small Cap indices lost 0.4% and 0.7% respectively. Market breadth was negative as the A/D ratio was 0.8:1 on the BSE. NSE cash turnover was Rs.8,926 crs. Vs. Rs.6,218 crs. in the previous session.

Sectoral and Stock movers

Barring the BSE Metals and Healthcare indices, all the sectoral indices ended lower. The top losers were the BSE Oil & Gas, Capital Goods, Realty and Power indices. The top gainers from the BSE 30 were Jindal Steel, SBI, Sterlite Inds and Hindalco Inds. The top losers were Maruti, BHEL, RIL and Tata Power.

Foreign markets

Major European markets like FTSE ( 0.2%) and DAX ( 0.2%) are trading higher at 16:10 IST while CAC is trading marginally lower.

Asian markets like Taiwan (0.3%), Strait Times (0.2%) and Shanghai (0.2%) indices ended higher for the day. However, Hang Seng and Nikkei lost 0.7% and 0.3% respectively.

Way forward

With the Nifty breaking an important support level of 4,700 today, we expect the downtrend to continue.

Source- hdfcsec

Morning Bell !!!....The Sensex opened with 0.5% gap down on expiry day, tracking concerns in the euro zone

2011-12-29T10:26:00.001+05:30

Indian Markets

Indian Equity Indices trembled in the early morning trade.

ONGC, DRREDDY, RPower, HDFC Bank, Coal India, ITC were among the notable leaders in the Sensex and the Nifty.

Infosys, Wipro, ICICI Bank, DLF, Ranbaxy, L&T, Maruti Suzuki, TCS, SBI, Sun Pharma,RCOM, Tata Steel, Tata Power, Bajaj Auto, were among the notable losers in the Sensex and the Nifty.

US and European Markets

Stocks closed down more than 1% Wednesday, as investors continued to fret over how Europe could solve its debt troubles in 2012. Selling intensified ahead of the close. Dow Jones closed down 140 points, or 1.1%. S&P 500 slid 16 points, or 1.3%. Nasdaq lost 35 points, or 1.3%.

European markets were down today, influenced by a negative day on Wall Street. Indexes fell mainly due to banking sector shares affected by the previous day's record overnight deposits with the ECB, indicating mistrust between banks, now reluctant to use the inter-bank market.Britain's FTSE 100 eased 0.1%, the DAX in Germany slumped 2% and France's CAC 40 lost 1%.

Asian Markets

Today all the Asian indices are trading in the red except Shanghai, which is up marginally. Hang Seng and Nikkei are trading lower by 1% and 0.8% respectively. Strait Times and Kospi are down by 0.3% each while Taiwan is down 0.5%.SGX Nifty is trading lower by 22.5 points.

Currencies

The Indian Rupee ended off lows on Wednesday against the US Dollar, recovering most losses after suspected RBI intervention, but global risk aversion meant the Indian currency would remain under pressure in the near term, dealers said.

Commodities

Among the metals, Zinc and Nickel lost 1.9% and 1.8% respectively. Aluminium and Copper ended lower by 1.1% each. Oil prices for February delivery jumped 1.5% after a top Iranian official warned that the nation could block the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit point for oil exports from the Middle East. Gold futures for February delivery fell $31.40 to $1,564.10 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India - WPI (Y-o-Y change)

US - Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales Index, EIA Petroleum Status Report

Germany - CPI

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open in the red following weak global cues and could witness volatility on account of derivatives expiry. Among the sectoral indices, Auto, Capital Goods and Banking stocks could underperform.

Sources- HDFC SEC,RH morning market

Morning Bell !!!......The key Indian equity indices have dipped in early morning trade

2011-12-28T10:57:00.000+05:30

Indian Market

The key Indian equity indices have dipped in early morning trade with the BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty struggling for direction amid no decisive clues from the overseas markets.

As far as domestic economy is concerned, things are looking bleak and will take time to turn around. FII flows will remain muted till there are signs of concrete action on the policy front.

Infosys, Tata Motors, HDFC, Tata Power,Hero MotoCorp,RCOM, TCS, HUL, NTPC, were among the notable leaders in the Sensex and the Nifty.

DLF, ICICI Bank, Ranbaxy, Axis Bank, HCL Tech, Tata Steel, BHEL, SBI, ONGC, L&T, were among the notable losers in the Sensex and the Nifty.

Power, Auto and IT index are the gainers.

FMCG, PSU, Metal, Realty, Consumer Goods,Bankex, Consumer Durables indices are the losers.

Market breadth is even with equal number of shares rising and falling on the BSE. Most sectoral indices are trading in the red, led by Banking and Capital Goods indices. Realty, Consumer Durables, PSU, Metals and Pharma indices are down anywhere between 0.5% and 1%. The remaining sectoral indices are more or less subdued.

Most Asian markets are down today with many of them returning to action after extended Christmas holidays. Indices in China and Hong Kong are down ~0.5% each. The S&P/ASX 200 index in Australia has lost 1%. The Nikkei in Japan was more or less unchanged

US Market

U.S. stocks were little changed; following the longest rally since September, as better‐than‐estimated consumer confidence data overshadowed a decline in home prices and concern about Europe’s debt crisis.

Asian Market

Asian stocks fell for a second day amid slow trading, with the regional benchmark index headed for the worst year since 2008, after a report showed U.S. housing prices fell, damping the earnings outlook for Asia’s exporters.

Commodities:

Oil traded near the highest level in six weeks after Iran threatened to block crude transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, increasing concern that global supplies will be curbed amid shrinking U.S. stockpiles.

Sources- RH morning market

Losing the spring in the step!

2011-12-27T17:53:00.000+05:30

It is that time of the year again; that of lazing, taking a break or an extended holiday and obviously who has boring market and investing on the minds. While talking to existing clients and prospects there was an excitement around what they are planning to do during the year end break than discuss investments. It is obvious therefore that you get along discussing the matter and take it easy with them while giving them time to enjoy and relax. Of course connecting this way and talking about other important things in life is equally important with clients – it goes a long way to build that relationship and facility smoother transactions in the year ahead.

Talking about today session, with the above background in view, looks like nobody’s really interested now that we are in the final over of the year. The match is more or less over, with equities being on the losing side in this game and other players such as Gold, Commodities and debt taking the lead.

The stocks today just hankered up and down basically losing all spring in their step and now appear to be leading a listless existence. All in all, looks like we would have a closing of 2011 over 20% down for the major indices for sure, unless of course we move either sharply higher or lower from current levels; which seem unlikely given that with each passing day this week, more number of people switching off from work.

Time to get listless on serious stuff and get more active on the dance floor.

Morning Bell !!!.....All the Indian Indices trading flat, Market in X'mas mood!!

2011-12-27T10:31:00.001+05:30

Indian Markets

The frontline Indian equity benchmarks are sedate at best in early morning trade, as investors choose to stay on the sidelines with only few trading sessions left in the year. Even the broader indices are subdued, leading to a dull start to the day.

IT, Oil and Gas, HC, Consumer Goods indices are the gainers. Realty, Power, Auto, FMCG, PSU indices are the losers.

Infosys, Wipro, DLF, Tata Power, Sun Pharma, L&T, Tata Power, Reliance Infra, RCOM, Rpower, Jindal Steel were among the notable leaders in the Sensex and the Nifty.

ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, SBI,BHEL Bajaj Auto, Coal India, Cipla, Bharti Airtel, ITC, NTPC were among the notable losers in the Sensex and the Nifty.

The political heat is all set to escalate as the showdown between Team Anna and the Government is likely to continue. Anna Hazare begins his three-day agitation in Mumbai from the MMRDA ground in BKC, Bandra. The Parliament will also resume the winter session to debate the New Lokpal Bill.

Asian Markets

Today all the Asian indices are trading in the red with Shanghai and Kospi trading lower by 0.9% and 0.6% respectively. Nikkei and Taiwan are down 0.5% each while Strait Times is down 0.2%. As per IST 8.15 am SGX Nifty is trading lower by 15 points.

Currencies

The Indian rupee ended stronger in thin trade on Monday as some bets on a further decline in the currency were covered amid improved risk sentiments on positive U.S. jobs and manufacturing data.

Key events to watch for today

US Consumer Confidence Level1 Report

US S&P Case-Shiller HPI

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open in the red following weak Asian cues and later take cues from the European markets.

Sources- Rh Morning market, HDFCSEC.

Calendar- January 2012 " An All Rounder in your Portfolio"

2011-12-26T17:40:00.000+05:30

Morning Bell !!!!....The main Indian equity benchmarks have opened with a positive bias

2011-12-26T10:34:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The main Indian equity benchmarks have opened with a positive bias, extending the advance from last week, amid signs of strength in the US economy and stable Asian markets. Trading volumes across world markets have tapered off lately as market players opt for extended year-end Christmas break.

Trading volumes across world markets have tapered off lately as market players opt for extended year-end Christmas break.

Shares of telecom service providers like Bharti Airtel, Idea Cellular and RCOM have risen after the TDSAT restraint the DoT from canceling the inter-circle 3G roaming agreements between the mobile operators.

Shares of GVK Power & Infra have jumped after a business daily reported that Singapore's Changhi Airport was likely to buy a 26% stake in GVK’s airports business.

US and European Markets

U.S. Investors brought holiday cheer to the stock markets pushing the S&P 500 back into positive territory for 2011 and the Dow up 6% for the year. On a light trading day ahead of the holiday weekend, investors scooped up stocks after economic reports released Friday morning continue to provide glimmers of hope for the U.S. economy with better-than-expected readings on personal spending, income and housing released Friday morning.

Dow Jones added 124 points, or 1% Friday. The index is up 3.6% for the week and 6.1% for year. S&P 500 rose 11 points, or 0.9% Friday, adding 3.7 for the week and 0.6% for the year. Nasdaq moved 19 points higher, or 0.7%, and despite moving up 2.7% this week, it's still down 1.3% this year.

Asian Markets

Today, all the Asian indices are trading in the red except Nikkei, which is trading higher by 1.1%. Shanghai and Kospi are down by 0.3% and 0.5% respectively. Taiwan is down 0.1%.As of IST 8.45 am today, SGX Nifty is trading higher by 6 points.

Currencies

The rupee remained on a weaker footing against the US dollar, as local demand for dollars remained strong.

Key events to watch for today

India - IIP Core (Y-o-Y Chg)

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open in the green on the back of positive global cues and trade sideways.

Source- RH morning market update, HDFC SECURITY

Morning Bell!!!....Immediate support for Nifty is at 4650, while the resistance is at 4800.

2011-12-23T10:28:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The main Indian equity benchmarks have opened with a positive bias, extending the gains to a third successive session, as investors welcome a series of upbeat data on the US economy and stability in European markets. Asian markets too are trading mostly up today, tracking overnight gains on Wall Street and Europe.

RIL, Wipro, DLF, L&T, BHEL, Tata Power, Maruti Suzki, Tata Motors, NTPC, Coal India, IDFC, HDFC Bank, Tata Steel, were among the notable leaders in the Sensex and the Nifty.

Infosys, Ranbaxy, TCS, ICICI Bank, Sun Pharma, Hero MotoCorp, were among the notable losers in the Sensex and the Nifty.

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks finished a quiet session higher on Thursday, after a stronger-than-expected reading on unemployment boosted investor optimism. The Dow Jones industrial average climbed 62 points, or 0.5%, the S&P 500 rose 10 points, or 0.8%, and the Nasdaq ticked up 21 points, or 0.8%.

Asian Markets

Today, all the Asian indices are trading in the green with Shanghai & Hang Seng trading higher by 0.3% & 1% respectively. Kospi & Strait times are up by 1% & 0.3% respectively, while Taiwan is trading higher by 1.8%.As of IST 8.50 am today, SGX Nifty is trading higher by 19 points.

Currencies

The rupee depreciated against the USD by 0.2% on Thursday on renewed dollar demand from importers and some banks despite firm local equity markets.

Commodities

Among the metals, Aluminium, Copper & Nickel ended higher by 0.3%, 1.3% & 1.8% respectively, while Zinc fell by 0.5%.Oil for February delivery rose 86 cents to $99.53 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery dropped $3 to settle at $1,610.60 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India - Forex Reserves & WMA (ways and means advance) to central & state governments.

Italy - ISAE Consumer Confidence (Level)

France - PPI (M-o-M & Y-o-Y)

US - Personal Income & Outlays, Durable goods orders, new home sales, money supply & Fed Balance Sheet.

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open in the green on the back of positive global cues & trade in a range with positive bias throughout the session. Immediate support for Nifty is at 4650, while the resistance is at 4800.

Sources- RH morning update, hdfcsec,

Listless at best!

2011-12-23T10:17:00.000+05:30

Today’s market was listless at best. There was no sense of purpose in the way stocks moved. It wanted to get ahead and went up; while it had opened like it wanted to go deep down. I am calling it listless though volatile could also be the word used, since volume fatigue seems to have set in. Also, the ones that have sunk in deep have seem to settled there accepting the battering as fate. The ones that seem to go up higher also do not show any promise. RIL for one is a case in point. Many BUY recommendations, positive news flow and above all looks well positioned to move up. Fundamentally and technically. However, on a daily basis the movement appears not to be very convincing, appears completely tentative to touch back to INR700 levels at the drop of the hat.

That only serves to tell, that it is only about sentiment for the moment. It would not take long for this thing to reverse therefore. Then, RIL moving smartly to INR900 would appear a cakewalk. Just that at this moment the time is just not perfect. RIL was being used only as an example. Take any stock, of the index which has steady fundamental outlook in the medium term, the same logic would apply.

And yes this is not limited to index stocks alone.

Finally, we enter the last week of 2011 next week, where the world would slow down materially; and would go about merry making. On the other side of December 31, 2011 lies hope and of course the earnings season for Q3 for us. Will that change course for the battered markets? It could be 50:50.

Let’s wait and watch. For now, Christmas is upon us. Season to be Merry and season to be Happy for what GOD has bestowed upon us. Will wish one and all today, tomorrow and on Christmas eve – A fun filled season ahead. GOD Bless.

Morning Bell !!!.....The undertone is negative due to deteriorating fundamentals of the Indian economy

2011-12-22T11:22:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The frontline Indian equity indices have lost ground in the opening trade, reversing some of the big gains registered in the preceding session.

The undertone is negative due to weak global markets and persistent concerns about deteriorating fundamentals of the Indian economy. The rupee, which advanced yesterday, is also down today versus the US dollar. The euro has softened after the ECB's maiden three-year lending program failed to alleviate concerns about the region's debt crisis.

ONGC, NTPC, HUL, Tata Power, Siemens, ITC were among the notable leaders in the Sensex and the Nifty. where as Infosys, ICICI Bank, Wipro, L&T, Rpower, DLF, BHEL, TCS, Tata Steel, SBI, were among the notable losers in the Sensex and the Nifty.

US and European Markets

The Dow and S&P 500 ended the day barely in positive territory on Wednesday, after falling nearly 1% on fears over the health of European banks and worse-than-expected readings on the housing market continued to trouble the markets. The Nasdaq trimmed some of the day's losses, but closed down 1% after most software stocks dropped dramatically following Oracle's surprisingly weak quarterly earnings released Tuesday night. The Dow Jones industrial average closed up 4 points, or 0.03%; while the S&P 500 added 2 points, or 0.2%. Competitors including Fortinet. TIBCO Software, and Teradata dropped between 5.5% and 7%.

Asian Markets

Today, all the Asian indices are trading in the red with Shanghai & Hang Seng trading lower by 1.4% & 0.7% respectively. Nikkei & Strait times are down by 0.6% & 0.3% respectively, while Kospi & Taiwan are trading lower by 0.4% & 0.1% respectively. As of IST 8.45 am, SGX Nifty is trading lower today by 42.5 points.

Currencies

The rupee appreciated against the USD by 0.7% on Wednesday to close at a more than one-week high following a sharp rebound in the local equities. Fresh dollar selling by exporters and some banks amid some weakness in dollar overseas also aided the rupee rise.

Key events to watch for today

India - WPI Index (Primary, Food, Non-Food Articles and Fuel & Power)

Italy - Retail Sales

UK - GDP

US - Jobless Claims, Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Level), GDP, Consumer Sentiment Index, FHFA House Price Index

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open lower following weak global cues.Latest food inflation data is due today but may not have any material impact on the overall sentiment, which is pretty fragile. However, later during the day, it could find support at lower levels and make an attempt to recover some of its losses. Immediate support for Nifty is at 4650, while the resistance is at 4750.

Source- rh morning market,HDFCSEC Report

Late surge and a flight to quality!

2011-12-21T16:20:00.000+05:30

The NIFTY Index today move sharply upwards and did not come as a surprise. After all the battering that the index received through the whole of December 2011, while the entire of Asia was doing fine was more than perplexing even with all the home-grown problems. So bounce it did, and the question that every one would ask could be; will it head up all the way to 5000 levels and beyond. Well, looks like Pt. 5000 could be effortless, however, could get a little difficult in the interim as the selling at every higher point would accentuate and exiters would spoil the party.

That said, I would imagine that the line of thought would not change, and we should continue to nibble away meaningfully at these levels by investing bit by bit. Just like we SIP the hot coffee, SIP away your blues of the market by starting as many SIP’s as possible for your clients. I am certain that around the same time next year, you could be a proud RM/WM to flaunt the statement to your client.

Coming back to market performance, the pattern was very typical too; all the action on the upside was limited to large caps, which means the out of favor mid/small caps are continuing to be just that; out of favor. My sense is that they would continue to remain out of favor until they demonstrate the resilience through quarterly results. Thankfully our set of mid/small companies are extremely ‘jugaadu’ and they would come out of this ruckus in flying colors. So it means that this out of favorness would be extended a while but is not a permanent feature.

We are now on the last legs of the year 2011. Then again it would bring in all the brand new (doomsday) year 2012. Just like our boss who is a contrarian to the core and has been successful with this philosophy; don’t be surprised if 2012 is a contrarian year. People have labeled it the year of Doom – and this would turn out to be the trump year. Remember that 2011 was labeled as the turn around year 12 months ago and turned out to be dud.

Strange are the ways. As they say – never predict, especially about the future.

Morning Bell !!!!.....After long time market in green mood

2011-12-21T10:51:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The key Indian equity benchmarks have opened with a big gap, tracking overnight rally in the US and European markets, as investors cheer upbeat reports on the US and European economies. Most other Asian markets are also up smartly today while the Rupee has also advanced marginally versus the US dollar.

BANKEX, Consumer Goods, Consumer Durables, Power, Realty, Auto, Oil and Gas, PSU, IT, FMCG indices are the gainers. RIL, Infosys, Wipro, Coal India, DLF, Axis Bank, SBI, Tata Motors, NTPC, Ranbaxy, Bajaj Auto, ITC, Maruti Suzuki, Sterlite Inds,Tata Steel, Mahindra & Mahindra were among the notable leaders in the Sensex and the Nifty. HCLTECH, HEROMOTOCO were among the notable losers in the Sensex and the Nifty.

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks surged on Tuesday as concerns about the European debt crisis eased and investors welcomed signs of strength in the U.S. housing market. Dow Jones rose 337 points, or 2.9%, to end at 12,103. S&P 500 jumped 36 points, or 3%, to 1,241. Nasdaq gained 80 points, or 3.2%, to 2,604.

European stock markets ended with strong gains Tuesday, boosted by upbeat news on the German economy and sharply lower borrowing costs for Spain. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 1%, while DAX in Germany jumped 3.1% and France's CAC 40 rose 2.7%.

Asian Markets

Today, all the Asian indices are trading in the green with Taiwan up the most (3.9%). Kospi and Hang Seng are trading higher by 2.7% and 1.8% respectively. Kospi and Nikkei are up 1.5% and 1.4% respectively. Shanghai is up 0.4%. As of IST 8.15 am, SGX Nifty is trading higher today by 83 points.

Currencies

The rupee reversed all intraday gains to close steady on Tuesday as traders pared some long-dollar positions after RBI deputy governor said more steps would be taken, if needed, to bring stability to the domestic forex market.

Commodities

Among the metals, Zinc fell by 0.1% while Aluminum gained 1.5%. Nickel rose by 1.1% while Copper ended marginally in the green. Oil for January delivery rose $3.29 to end at $97.17 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery rose $20.90 to settle at $1,617.60 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

Italy GDP

US EIA Petroleum Status Report

US Existing Home Sales

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open in the green and inch up further during the day. Among the sectoral indices, Oil & Gas and IT stocks could outperform.

Sources- HDFCSEC, RH Morning market update

Urgently required – rare M+ blood group!

2011-12-20T17:14:00.000+05:30

When Santa comes to town this weekend, I would imagine we would not recognize him, since he wears red suit and there is blood all over the street and in news and in the mood. So maybe he should come down to India at least in a green suit; for a change.

The markets looks like have caught a severe form of e-coli virus infection and is dehydrating everyday. We go from one level to another and for straight sessions in December 2011 we are down to a level where every one is looking like lost appetite to buy anything. Blue chip have transformed into Blue cheaps. How else would you imagine, LT @ 975 (triple digits) and lesser known construction companies such as HCC @ 16INR. With prices so cheap there is no need to look at the mid/small cap names at all. BTW, who wants to look at names which are falling like 8-10% on a single day.

For the entire 2011 to date; we are now down around 26% and that is amongst the worst performing asset class across Asia.

Today’s fall was worrisome for couple of points; nothing new happened however, Asia was meaningfully up and so is EU region despite all the crap that is going on. This then looks like the world telling us that the Indian economy is not worth the attractive opportunity the way insiders present it to be. Could be true but only partly, according to me. My sense is that at some point the same points such as regions that have done well don’t deserve to be rated that much higher and there is great value in India. This argument coming into play is likely to become a reality sooner than later if we continue to head south.

For the moment, the market requires blood, urgently and as we all know, M+ is a rare group only with a few people, excluding all politicians.

Morning Bell !!!............Swelling fiscal deficit, widening current account gap, high interest rates, slowing economy and policy inaction are forcing foreign investors to commit less to India

2011-12-20T10:40:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The frontline Indian indices managed to pull back from lows struck on Monday while the volatile rupee closed above the 53-per-dollar mark. The start today was a better one as most Asian markets are trading in the positive zone. Swelling fiscal deficit, widening current account gap, high interest rates, slowing economy and policy inaction are forcing foreign investors to commit less to India. Lingering worries over the euro area debt crisis continue to play spoilsport as well.

It is tough to find many optimists willing to bet their money on Indian equities at the moment. Further downside is not ruled out as buying support is dwindling. Scary levels on the frontline indices are being bandied about. Things could improve a bit over the medium to long term, provided the Government signals and/or implements a few important steps to lift the pall of gloom.

Although the Nifty ended on a negative note, a hammer on Monday’s trading session has a potential to turn into a trend reversal pattern, provided it is followed by a higher opening. On the upside, 4675 could turn out to be an important resistance on a closing basis. Any move above the same would negate a ‘Head and shoulder’ pattern, paving the way for a relief rally. Till then, the mood is likely to remain cautious.

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Monday as bank shares took a beating amid fresh concerns about the debt crisis in Europe. Dow Jones fell 100 points, or 0.8%, to end at 11,766. S&P 500 sank 14 points, or 1.2%, to 1,205. Nasdaq slid 32 points, or 1.2%, to 2,523.

European stocks closed mostly lower on Monday, giving up gains as markets waited on talks between EU finance ministers and kept a wary eye on the Far East after the death of North Korea's Kim Jong-Il. Britain's FTSE 100 eased 0.4%, DAX in Germany slid 0.5% and France's CAC 40 closed little changed.

Currencies

The rupee pulled back from the day's low on Monday buoyed by dollar sales from some local companies, although weakness in local equities on signs of cooling domestic growth weighed.

Commodities

Among the metals, Nickel gained 1.6% while Aluminium lost 2.4%. Copper and Zinc fell by 0.8% and 0.9% respectively.Oil for January delivery rose 58 cents to $94.11 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery fell $4.90 to $1,593.00 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India - CPI

Germany - PPI

US - Redbook

Japan - Bank of Japan announcement

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open in the green and inch up further during the day. Support on Nifty is at 4,539 while resistance is 4,650. Among the sectoral indices, Auto stocks could outperform.

Source- Rh Morning market update, HDFC Security

Morning Bell !!!!.....SENSEX dives 250 points,Nifty fell 84 points to 4,567.80

2011-12-19T10:49:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The Sensex extended the sell-off in the early trade, falling over 264 points while the Nifty was slipping towards the 4550 level. The Indian rupee too depreciated by 45 paise to 53.15 a dollar; in the last week it appreciated sharply from a record low of 54.29 after RBI came out with some measures to minimise the speculation. Banks, capital goods, metals and technology stocks were also beaten down. The Sensex was quoting at 15227.40. Meanwhile, the Nifty fell 84 points to 4,567.80 led by fall in 43 stocks

US and European Markets

Stocks ended Friday mixed after a roller-coaster week in which all three indexes each lost more than 2.5%. After moving up more than 1% in the first hour of trading, stocks steadily retreated. Dow Jones closed the day down 2 points, or 0.02%. S&P 500 moved up 4 points, or 0.3%. Nasdaq increased 15 points, or 0.6%.

European stocks pulled back on Friday, adding to the fourth weekly loss in the past five. Britain's FTSE 100 ticked down 0.3% while DAX in Germany edged down 0.5%. France's CAC 40 shed 0.9%.

Asian Markets

Today, all the Asian indices are trading in the red with Kospi and Hang Seng trading lower by 2.5% and 1.9% respectively. Shanghai and Taiwan are down by 1.8% each while Strait Times is down 1.5%. Nikkei is down by 0.8%. As of IST 8.15 am, SGX Nifty is trading lower today by 41 points.

Currencies

USD had appreciated marginally against the Euro before France and Spain sell bills this week amid concern the currency blocs second- and fourth- largest economies will have their credit rating cuts. The 17-nation euro traded near a two-month low versus the yen after Fitch Ratings lowered its outlook for France’s credit ranking and said it may cut Spain’s grade.

The Indian rupee surged against the U.S. dollar in a day of wild swings after a central bank move to curb speculative currency bets led to a dramatic drop in volumes on Friday, even as it announced a likely reversal in its monetary policy stance.

Commodities

Among the metals, Nickel and Aluminium gained 1.5% and 1.2% respectively. Copper and Zinc rose by 1% and 0.4% respectively. Oil for January delivery increased 12 cents to $93.99 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery rose $20.70 to $1,597.90 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

US Housing Market index

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open in the red in line with global cues and remain lower in the day. Among the sectoral indices, Banking and Auto stocks could underperform.

Sources- HDFCSEC

Weekly Market Wrap- When all hope is lost… hope beckons!

2011-12-17T15:31:00.000+05:30

After rising smartly last week, the week gone by saw the Sensex/Nifty attempting to move higher. They however found resistance at the 17004/5099 levels and slid lower. The selling pressure intensified in the last two sessions of the week as the bears got the upper hand. W-o-W, while the Sensex lost 3.83%, the Nifty lost 3.63% over the same period. Market breadth was negative in two out of the four trading sessions of the week.

Key events

Global Markets

U.S. government reported that the number of people filing for initial unemployment benefits fell to a 9-month low of 381,000 in the latest week. Wholesale inventories for the month of October came in higher-than-expected at 1.6%. U.S. consumer credit rose by $7.7 billion in October, or 3.7% an annual rate, the Federal Reserve said. The trade deficit probably widened in October as a strengthening U.S. economy helped drive up the nation's import bill while exports cooled from a record high. The gap grew to $44 billion from the prior month's $43.1 billion shortfall that was the smallest this year.

European Central Bank took steps to revive the ailing European economy and ease credit conditions for troubled EURO zone banks. But ECB president Mario Draghi offered no indication that he is willing to intervene aggressively in the bond market, stressing that the onus is on European governments to resolve the debt crisis. China's inflation reached a 14-month low and industrial production rose less than forecast, bolstering the case for more stimulus measures to shore up growth in the world's second-largest economy. Japan's economy grew less than the government's initial estimate last quarter as companies reduced investment on concern overseas demand was stalling. Gross domestic product increased at an annualized 5.6 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30.

The European statistics agency, Eurostat, estimated that eurozone economy grew 0.2% in the third quarter.

S&P said it might also cut the AAA rating of Europe's bailout fund. The fund needs that top rating to cheaply raise money, and losing it would mean it would cost billions more to fund bailouts.

Indian Markets

India's exports grew by 33.2% to $192.7 billion in the April-November period of the 2011-12 financial year. The country's imports also rose by 30.2% to $309.5 billion during the period, leaving a trade gap of $116.8 billion. India's manufacturing sector expansion slowed in November as factory output grew at its slowest pace in nearly three years although export demand should provide some cheer for factories. HSBC Markit India Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.0 from 52.0 in October, but has stayed above the 50 mark that divides growth from contraction for 32 months. Food inflation declined to 8% in the week ended November 19 from 9.01% in the preceding week. Inflation in the Primary Articles group fell to 7.74% in the week under review, from 9.08%. Inflation in the Fuel & Power group stood at 15.53% in the week ended November 19 versus 15.49% in the previous week.

India's services sector expanded in November for the first time in two months as new business accelerated despite persistent inflationary pressures. HSBC Markit Business Activity Index -- based on a survey of around 400 firms -- stood at 53.2 in November.

Outlook of the week starting 19/12

Looks like we are toast. And also looks like this new year party would be all about how we have lost money for good. Well as with all disaster movies that show crises after crises hitting the protagonist and finally victory and well earned at that; I am sure that just on the other side of 2011 there will be a strong recovery we would all be proud of. Asides, for the next couple of weeks, particularly week starting 19/12 I would imagine that we are hitting the slowness in the scheme of things. General lethargy to trade and look at the markets. People would look at an alibi to postpone purchases of stocks and consequent low volumes.

This is actually a good time to cherry pick in the large cap names. Nice time to have them all, at a price that you have been waiting for. Remember, just like all good things come to an end; bad things DO come to an end to. So stock up as always said, till stocks last.

Sources:

HDFC Securities Weekly wrap of the Market

Right Horizons Equity Desk for Outlook for the coming week

NIFTY RIP !!!!!!!!....

2011-12-16T17:37:00.000+05:30

Well I actually am going overboard on explaining the situation, but with Dr. Subbu going into a freeze mode and waiting a bit more to do anything, the bears are all out to bludgeon whichever bull they lay their sight on. The trickle post the policy has assumed biblical proportion of sell off by the time we hit 1500hrs on the clock. At the time of close, all the heavy weights took cover or were beating down severely. L&T was begging to let go at INR1075, Jaiprakash looks like will hit INR55, BHEL lost all power at INR240 and SAIL lost INR75. Moreover, there was blood over the non-index stocks particularly in the mid/small cap space. There were more than a handful of the respected names or darling of the past few weeks down over 10% each.

Stressful names such as a 3i Infotech are now kissing double digits and soon appear to go the Satyam way. Unfortunately, there will be no government to bail out this time; since this time the government needs a bailout from Team Anna playing truant for almost 6 months.

I believe with the kind of closing we have had today, looks like we are heading for pt. 4600 on the Nifty and stagnate at lower levels then before. For the next six months into the new year we could be very listless. However look at it this way. For entire 2011 calendar we would now in all likelihood close around 25% or so down than at the start of the year. My sense is that for 2012 from the beginning to the end we should close a big positive. Whether we close year 2012 by 15%, 20% or in single digits would be a matter of great debate.

Next week on, we enter a listless and slow and downward journey to the close of the year and into earnings early 2012. Until then, just cannot help.

Morning Bell !!......The Sensex rebounded with more than 100 points gains on Friday after sharp appreciation in the rupee

2011-12-16T10:07:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The Sensex rebounded with more than 100 points gains on Friday after sharp appreciation in the rupee. Even globally, the US economic data and Spanish bond auction improved sentiments yesterday. At the moment, all eyes are on the RBI's mid-quarter review of monetary policy expected today at 12 noon.

The Sensex was up 148.6 points at 15,985.07 and the Nifty was trading at 4,791.95, up 45.60. Banks, capital goods, telecom, auto and metals stocks gained.

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks closed higher on Thursday on upbeat jobs and manufacturing reports, but investors said the market remains nervous about the European debt crisis. Dow Jones rose 45 points, or 0.4%, to close at 11,869. S&P 500 rose 4 points, or 0.3%. Nasdaq added 2 points, or 0.1%, to 2,541.

European shares have closed sharply lower and the euro tumbled to near one-year dollar lows. The pessimistic mood was fuelled by fresh concerns the measures trumpeted at last week's EU summit will not solve the eurozone debt crisis. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.6%, DAX in Germany gained 1% and France's CAC 40 added 0.8%.

All the Indian ADRS ended in the green with Tata Communications gaining the most (4.2%) while MTNL and Satyam rose by 2.2% and 1.7% respectively. Tata Motors ended higher by 0.7% while Infosys and HDFC Bank gained 0.5% each. ICICI Bank and Wipro rose by 0.4% and 0.1% respectively.

Asian Markets

Today, all the Asian indices are trading in the green except Shanghai, which is down marginally. Kospi is trading higher by 0.5% while Nikkei and Strait Times are down 0.3% each. Hang Seng and Taiwan are down by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. SGX Nifty is trading higher today by 5.5 points.

Currencies

The Indian rupee continued its downward spiral against the US dollar on Thursday, hitting another record low due to concerns over the eurozone debt crisis and weak domestic data.

Commodities

Among the metals, Copper and Zinc lost 1.2% and 0.2% respectively. Aluminium and Nickel gained 0.6% and 0.1% respectively. Oil for January delivery fell $1.08 to $93.87 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery fell $9.70 to $1,577.20 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India Mid-Quarter Review of Monetary Policy

US Fed Balance Sheet, Money Supply, CPI

EU Merchandise Trade

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open in the green in line with global cues. Today?s Mid Quarterly Review of the Monetary Policy would be keenly watched for further course of action.

Source-hdfcsec

My Daily Rant.....Fistfight at Pt. 4747

2011-12-15T16:49:00.000+05:30

Imagine this. 3 balls remaining 8 runs to win and 8 wickets down. SIX of the ball. 2 balls remaining 2 runs needed 2 wickets. Bowled. 1 ball remaining 1 wicket in hand, spinner bowling who as taken 5 wickets already and a tail ender batting who does not know how to hold the bat. Who wins? The batting side or the bowling side. There is more. There is a slight drizzle on the ground and the umpires are asking for a break.

This is exactly what has happened in the market today. We went down deep with no hope of rescuing pt. 4747 (the triple bottom technical point) and between 1400hrs and 1530hrs what a finish. We have actually closed at pt. 4747. The man of the match is clearly the big daddy of the stock market RIL which pulled up the market by rising 1.11% while most of the market bigwigs were wilting. Power and capital goods continued to fall from grace. Autos taking a beating too, despite good sales numbers in November 2011. Banks too had been weak most part of the day.

So on the D-day that was today the market provided enough climax to all and sundry. Now the next question, since Mt. 4747 is retained and with Dr. Subbu doing the magic tomorrow; what lies ahead. I would imagine that we are headed for a marginal uptick and also could do a nice little bounce from these levels.

The global situation, as always could be a spoiler though, and we know that it was because of the global show that we are where we are. And with that picture slowing down due to holiday season in a week’s time, it might be a painful tread uphill.

Will keep you guys updated on what Dr. Subbu does tomorrow. My sense is that he is just going to pull a Telugu Rabbit from his hat and say “Yelavunddi” { How is it?}

Morning Bell !!!!........A fresh record low for the rupee 54.27 to dollar

2011-12-15T10:58:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The key Indian stock benchmarks have taken a beating, as a combination of domestic and global headwinds continue to keep investors at bay despite reasonable valuations. A fresh record low for the rupee, coupled with the overnight selloff across asset classes has dented investor confidence this morning. A big headache for Indian policymakers at the moment is the unrelenting slide in the rupee. With the dollar in great demand and macro-economic fundamentals weak, the pressure is likely to continue on the Indian currency. That may, in turn keep FII inflows depressed. In short, things could worsen before they start looking up again. So, brace for some more volatility and uncertainty.

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks tumbled on Wednesday as the European debt crisis continued to weigh on the markets and a stronger dollar dragged down commodities prices. Dow Jones sank 131 points, or 1.1%, to 11,823. S&P 500 fell 14 points, or 1.1%. to 1,212. Nasdaq shed 40 points, or 1.5%, to 2,539.

European shares have closed sharply lower and the euro tumbled to near one-year dollar lows. The pessimistic mood was fuelled by fresh concerns the measures trumpeted at last week's EU summit will not solve the eurozone debt crisis. Britain's FTSE 100 fell 2.3%, Germany's DAX slid 1.7% and France's CAC 40 shed 3.3%.

Asian Markets

Today, all the Asian indices are trading in the red with Hang Seng and Shanghai trading lower by 2.3% and 256 respectively. Kospi and Taiwan are down by 1.9% and 1.8% respectively. Strait Times and Nikkei are trading lower by 1.4% and 1.3% respectively. As of IST 8.44 am, SGX Nifty is trading lower today by 61.5 points.

Currencies

The Indian rupee hit yet another record low on Wednesday as worse-than-expected inflation data and the US Fed?s decision to hold back on new stimulus steps heightened fears that capital outflows from emerging economies such as India could accelerate.

Commodities

Among the metals, Zinc lost the most (3.5%) while Copper and Nickel ended lower by 3.3% each. Aluminium fell by 2.4%. Oil for January delivery fell $5.19 to $94.95 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery sank $76.20 to $1,586.90 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India WPI Data Weekly

EU PMI Manufacturing Index

EU PMI Services Index

US Jobless Claims

US PPI Data

US Industrial Production Data

US EIA Natural Gas Report

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open lower on the back of negative global cues. Among the sectoral indices, Capital Goods, Realty and Metals stocks could underperform

Source- RH Morning market update, HDFCSEC

Morning Bell !!!!.....A new all-time low for the Indian Rupee is affecting the sentiment

2011-12-14T14:43:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The main Indian equity benchmarks resumed their southbound journey after rising modestly in the previous session, as investors continue to fret over the worsening macro-economic landscape for the domestic economy. A new all-time low for the Indian Rupee is also affecting the sentiment even as the US dollar strengthened versus major rivals.

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks ended in the red Tuesday, giving up an earlier rally, after the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged and issued a tepid outlook. Dow Jones lost 66 points, or 0.6%; S&P 500 was fell 11 points, or 0.9%; and Nasdaq dropped 33 points, or 1.3%.

European stocks rebounded from their biggest slide in three weeks, as Spain sold more securities than it had planned at a debt auction and a report showed that investor confidence in Germany improved. European stocks finished mixed. Britain's FTSE 100 ticked up 1%, while DAX in Germany fell 0.3% and France's CAC 40 edged down 0.8%.

Asian Markets

Today, all the Asian indices are trading in the red except Shanghai, which is trading higher by 0.2%. Nikkei is trading lower by 0.4% while Taiwan and Strait Times are down by 0.1% each. Hang Seng and Kospi are down marginally. As of IST 8.42 am, SGX Nifty is trading lower today by 41 points.

Currencies

The euro fell to an 11-month low against the dollar on concern European leaders won't agree on ways to expand the region's rescue capacities as debt-strapped nations struggle to fund their deficits.

The Indian rupee on Tuesday breached the 53-per dollar mark, with investors continuing to shift their preference towards the dollar, as the country heads for an economic slowdown. According to dealers, the rupee is likely to remain under pressure, as not much intervention is expected from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

Commodities

Among the metals, Nickel rose by 0.8% while Zinc lost 1.3%. Aluminium and Copper fell by 0.3% each. Oil for January delivery rose $2.37 to settle at $100.14 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery fell $5.10 to settle at $1,663.10 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India WPI Inflation - Monthly

US FMOC meeting announcement

EIA Petroleum Status report

EU - Industrial Production

Canada - Manufacturing Sales

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open in the red and trade in a range through the day. If today inflation figures are disappointing, the possibility of CRR rate cut gets reduced and markets could take this negatively

Sources-hdfcsec

My Daily Rant......Near death experience!!!!

2011-12-13T20:34:00.000+05:30

What a day!! I am almost certain that during the course of today all technical analyst would have had their heart in their mouths. Today’s session was akin to having an NDE (for the uninitiated on NDE please see here) of sorts for the investor and speculators alike. When we were below the dreaded 4747 pt on the Nifty for a few moments it felt like this stops at below this level for the day and there we slid into the abyss. Then the spectacular happened, we slowly pulled up and stabilized around the 4760 mark several times testing the patience. And finally, there was a rocket effort to take it away to glory and way above the dreaded 4747 closing.

Several questions come to mind here.

First, where did the rocket come from? The buying interest that came in the last few minutes of the session; was it from genuine delivery based guys taking long term position or was it from speculative short covering folks.

Second, with all stocks but a few holding in the green for better part of the day, was there a lot of bottom fishing going on in the names that were deep in the red?

Finally, is this pull back for real?

The best part of the market is that we are still two session away from any meaningful event that is yet to happen in the Indian context, the RBI policy review on Friday. So it would be interesting to see that this pullback or whatever has happened today stays afloat tomorrow and day after as well. Else we could be having an NDE2 and NDE3 very soon. Don’t worry it doesn’t work that way. Normally in any person’s life cycle there is only one NDE and if we indeed had one today, then the market should be in safe zone now.

Very interesting period for the asset markets I must admit; savor all the moments; as unidirectional bull markets – once in full flow would really be quite boring. Besides, when even your auto wallah investing and telling you an investing tip or two is not the best thing to happen anyways.

Enjoy while the climax on the market is on.

Morning Bell !!!.........The Indian rupee crossed the 53 to the dollar today - fresh all-time low.

2011-12-13T10:10:00.001+05:30

Indian Markets

The Sensex dropped about 100 points in opening trade following negative global cues. But it managed to recover some of its early losses soon after. The fall was after the reports that European Union may face downgrade from rating agencies. The Sensex was trading at 15,813.96, down 56.39 points amid volatility. Meanwhile, the Nifty slipped 18.7 points to 4,745.90.

US & European Markets

U.S. stocks tumbled in a broad sell-off Monday amid growing investor doubt that Europe's debt crisis will actually be resolved, and a sales warning from chipmaker Intel. Dow Jones slid 163 points, or 1.3%, while S&P 500 lost 19 points, or 1.5%, and Nasdaq dropped 35 points, or 1.3%. Earlier, all three major indexes had declined about 2%.

European stocks closed sharply lower. Britain's FTSE 100 slipped 1.5%, DAX in Germany dropped 3.1% and France's CAC 40 fell 2.3%.

Asian Markets

Today all the Asian indices are trading in the red with Nikkei and Kospi trading lower by 1.5% each while Hang Seng is down 1.2%. Shanghai and Taiwan are down by 1% and 0.9% respectively. Strait Times is down 0.7%. As per IST 9.04 am SGX Nifty is trading lower by 42 points.

Currencies

The Indian rupee tumbled to its all-time low as jittery global investors pulled out funds amid fast deteriorating economic health with the index of industrial production contracting more than 5%, and higher than reported trade deficit after government admitted to $9 billion of inflated export figures. The Indian rupee crossed the 53 to the dollar today - fresh all-time low. It was trading at 53.17 to the dollar, down 33 paise. It fell 82 paise to 70.19 an euro.

Commodities

Among the metals, Copper fell the most 2.3% while Aluminium and Zinc lost 1.8% and 1.5% respectively. Nickel fell by 0.3%. Oil for January delivery slipped $1.64 to settle at $97.77 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery fell $48.60 to settle at $1,668.20 an ounce.

Outlook

Today, the Indian market is likely to open in the red following weak global cues and move downwards during the day. Among the sectoral indices, Banking and IT stocks could underperform.

Sources- hdfcsec

Self inflicted wounds!

2011-12-12T18:35:00.000+05:30

What can a number do? A lot, especially if it contains anything letters such as IIP, GDP, CRR etc preceding it. Today was the day of one such number - the IIP. What did it do? It came out of the government bag and dragged down the markets meaningfully. The IIP which reflects the production activity of the country and is released on a monthly basis fell 5.7% signaling a falling output and lower industrial activity. This means that at least on the industrial production side, the growth overall for the entire year could be meaningfully lower than that of last year. Secondly, since the industrial activity is an important component of GDP this would also have an impact on GDP numbers being soft and so the vicious cycle of one number affecting the other has begun.

The market were quick to catch the bout of cold and went into a tizzy. Within no time we were all over the place with key names in the Nifty falling off and rubbing off onto another the selling momentum. The notable crashlings included L&T, JP Associates, all power companies, Steel companies real estate segment and to a meaningful extent Autos. Probably, IT and Pharma were kept out, since the first does not care what happens in India (they care more of what happens half way across the globe) and the second – no matter what would not face any difficulty selling pills and syringes to the folks.

Now the action would move over the Dr. Subbarao who would pull out anything worth pulling out from the hat to soothe the frayed nerves. This is expected to happen on the 16th of December 2011. But until that time, I would imagine that this selling frenzy could last a bit longer than envisaged. With alternate bouts of selling and cooling.

The market in all probability is headed for the amongst the worst yearly (calendar) close (barring 2008) for the past decade. So while all and sundry are gearing up for new years in a couple of weeks; am sure this part of the country (IB folks, brokers et al) are going to eat just bread & butter for Christmas.

However, hope floats eternal in the land called India. 2012 is a fresh year for business.

Morning Bell !!!.....The Indian stock indices opened with a decent gap, tracking strong cues from the overseas markets

2011-12-12T10:23:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The Indian stock indices opened with a decent gap, tracking strong cues from the overseas markets, but could not capitalise on the positive start and lost some of the early steam.

Infosys, M&M, ONGC, DLF, SBI, BHEL, Reliance Infra, RCOM, Bajaj Auto, Sun Pharma, Jindal Steel, Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Sterlite Inds, Jaiprakash Asso, were among the notable leaders in the Sensex and the Nifty.

TCS,DRREDDY, Coal India, Siemens, Maruti, Cipla, Tata Power, HUL were among the notable losers in the Sensex and the Nifty.

Shares of FMCG major Emami were down sharply after R.S. Agarwal, Chairman of Emami Group, and a director of AMRI Hospitals was arrested late on Friday night. AMRI Hospitals is jointly promoted by Emami Group, which holds 66%, and real estate group Shrachi, which holds 32%. Six of AMRI Hospitals' seven arrested directors were on Saturday remanded in police custody for 10 days.

Source :- India Infoline

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks rallied Friday after a majority of European leaders agreed on a new deal to try to resolve the eurozone debt crisis. Dow Jones added 187 points, or 1.6%. S&P 500 jumped 21 points, or 1.7%. The Nasdaq rose 50 points, or 1.9%.

European stocks ended with solid gains. Britain's FTSE 100 ticked up 0.8%, DAX in Germany rose 1.9% and France's CAC 40 added 2.3%. European and U.S. stocks rallied on the news, ignoring Moodys downgrade of three top French banks: BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole SA and Societe Generale.

Asian Markets

Today, all the Asian indices are trading in the green except Shanghai, which is trading lower by 0.5%. Hang Seng and Nikkei are trading higher by 1.4% each while Kospi is up 1.1%. Taiwan and Strait Times are up by 0.9% and 0.8% respectively. As of IST 8.36 am, SGX Nifty is trading higher today by 25.5 points.

Currencies

The Indian rupee tumbled 0.9% on Friday, hit by dollar demand from oil importers and a slide in local equities, with sentiment remaining cautious as world markets awaited with bated breath the outcome of a key euro zone summit later in the day.

Commodities

Among the metals, Nickel rose by 0.7% while Zinc lost 1.7%. Aluminium fell by 0.1% while Copper gained marginally. Oil for December delivery fell $2.48 to $98.01 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery dropped $31.80 to $1,713.00 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

India IIP

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open in the in the green on the back of positive global cues and later reverse the trend. Among the sectoral indices, Auto stocks could underperform.

Source-hdfcsec

Weekly Snap Shot !!!.... W-o-W, while the Sensex lost 3.83%, the Nifty lost 3.63% over the same period

2011-12-10T10:05:00.001+05:30

Key events

Global Markets

U.S. government reported that the number of people filing for initial unemployment benefits fell to a 9-month low of 381,000 in the latest week.

European Central Bank took steps to revive the ailing European economy and ease credit conditions for troubled eurozone banks. But ECB president Mario Draghi offered no indication that he is willing to intervene aggressively in the bond market, stressing that the onus is on European governments to resolve the debt crisis. The European statistics agency, Eurostat, estimated that eurozone economy grew 0.2% in the third quarter. S&P said it might also cut the AAA rating of Europe's bailout fund. The fund needs that top rating to cheaply raise money, and losing it would mean it would cost billions more to fund bailouts.

Indian Markets

India's manufacturing sector expansion slowed in November as factory output grew at its slowest pace in nearly three years although export demand should provide some cheer for factories. HSBC Markit India Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.0 from 52.0 in October, but has stayed above the 50 mark that divides growth from contraction for 32 months.

Food inflation declined to 8% in the week ended November 19 from 9.01% in the preceding week. Inflation in the Primary Articles group fell to 7.74% in the week under review, from 9.08%. Inflation in the Fuel & Power group stood at 15.53% in the week ended November 19 versus 15.49% in the previous week.

Key Sectoral Movement

All the sectoral indices except IT ended in the red. IT gained marginally by 0.1%. The top losers were Capital Goods, Realty, Oil & Gas and Metals, which fell by 5.4%, 4.8%, 4.6% and 4.5% respectively.

Outlook of the week

With the Indian markets drifting down this week, the upmove seen last week seems to have been negated. Traders will now need to watch if the Nifty can hold above the supports of 4755. Else, a further sell-off can be seen.

Source-hdfcsec

Daily Rant- Just not getting it right!

2011-12-09T18:51:00.000+05:30

This week was flat as a pancake. We went up, we went down and closed with around nothing. Over the past two days, however, it now looks like we will head lower through the month, unless a miracle saves us. And in India miracles do happen. Everywhere. In Cricket, Shewag belting 219 in 146 balls is a miracle. In Bangalore people driving (see here) is another miracle. Government policy is a miracle too. Now there is policy, next minute no policy.

But we must still keep the faith. Since we as an economy are built for functioning in a very quirky way; we are indeed a rag tag nation. Things will get done, justice will prevail – very slooowly. And the markets would go down when they should go up and vice versa. If we keep logic and intuition in place then we can win. So principles of physics such as gravity pulls matters down, and as in investments BUY low and SELL high are like physics law. They hold good in the Indian market. So we should not challenge that. We should buy when cheap and sell when dear. Why is it so cheap when there is a goldmine lying is questioning the principles on which our country works. Very very difficult to explain. Just like the video. May look funny, but when you are a part of that frame (when you are driving) you will look and do exactly what people in there are doing.

So again, today we have another set of beating the market got. Same old faces are pulling down the index. Actually, RIL now has stopped working like a private company, it looks and feels like a government enterprise. What with majority of the business with government controlled licenses and rules and regulations. That is also party responsible to drag the stock when the government is not doing well.

Rest of the pack is wavering between meaninglessness and helplessness.

Have a nice weekend. Sleep tight. Tomorrow is another day.

Morning Bell !!!!......NSE Nifty sliding under the 4900 mark

2011-12-09T10:36:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The Indian market has taken a severe beating in early morning trade, with the BSE Sensex tumbling over 300 points and the NSE Nifty sliding under the 4900 mark.

The undercurrent has been dampened by a combination of domestic cum global factors ahead of a crucial announcement from EU leaders at a Summit in Brussels later today.

While food inflation has come off sharply in the past one month and the RBI has signaled a pause in its aggressive monetary tightening, the Government's fiscal profligacy and a weakening rupee have dimmed the prospects for the Indian economy. Add to that the ongoing political tussle between the Government and the Opposition parties on a series of issues, ranging from inflation, to corruption, to black money and economic reform measures.

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks slipped on Thursday as anxiety was high ahead of a crucial summit aimed at resolving the European debt crisis.

Dow Jones ended the day down 199 points, or 1.6%. S&P 500 closed with a 27 point drop, or 2.1%. Nasdaq slid 53 points, or 2%. The S&P and Nasdaq dropped back into negative territory for the year.

European stocks closed lower. Britain's FTSE 100 fell 1.1%, DAX in Germany lost 2.0% and France's CAC 40 moved down 2.5%.

Asian Markets

Today, all the Asian indices are trading in the red except Shanghai, which is marginally in the green. Nikkei is trading lower by 1.5% while Hang Seng, Taiwan and Kospi are down 1.4% each. Strait Times is down by 0.7%. Japan's Nikkei average dropped on Friday after global shares slumped as steps from the European Central Bank disappointed some investors. As of IST 8.27 am, SGX Nifty is trading lower today by 62 points.

Currencies

The Indian rupee reversed most early losses on Thursday helped by dollar sales by some state-run banks and corporates, but losses in local shares and a weak euro limited the rise.

Commodities

Among the metals, Nickel rose by 0.3% while Aluminium lost 1.9%. Copper and Zinc fell by 0.2% each. Oil for December delivery fell $2.48 to $98.01 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery dropped $31.80 to $1,713.00 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

Germany CPI data

UK PPI data

US Money Supply and Fed Balance Sheet

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open in the negative following weak global cues and disappointment from the ECB meeting yesterday. The markets could be nervous ahead of the EU summit today.

Sources- hdfcsec, rh morning market

Daily Rant!!!- "This downfall is spurious!"

2011-12-08T17:27:00.000+05:30

Well, while there is no denying the fact that the markets are under pressure and now it appears; of our own doing rather than that of the global markets. But as mentioned in my previous rant, that what psyches me off is that with all the problems in the western world, their markets seems to be just doing fine. Today the EU markets have been up, and so were they all through the past few days; with all the problems of sovereign debt pile up, downgrades looming and forced austerity measures.

And here like Allan Donald threw away a certain victory to the Aussies in the World Cup Semi-Finals many years ago, our government is hell bent upon pushing us back to stone age. At this moment, I am neither for nor against FDI in retail. Because nobody knows the real impact on employment, job losses and fate of the petty sellers; but at least project the right posture in front of the world. This “now on, now off” message really irks and puts off any investor, leave alone the ‘goras’ with the bundle of cash.

So there we are again, with markets refusing to inch up, falling like hot knife cutting through butter; these cuts now would really hurt. Technically, I would imagine this would sound like the death grip. Since a reversal pattern so strong on the downside, all daggers are out to kill the upswing, and punters ready to throw money at deep out of money options. So Nifty would see sharp downward momentum and would hurtle towards Pt. 4400 for sure.

As indicated on several occasions, keeping calm, buying the blue chip and shopping for the choicest stocks would be the flavor of the season. The Fall season sale is truly starting. Indulge.

Morning Bell !!!.....Indian equity benchmarks have opened with a negative bias

2011-12-08T10:32:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

Indian equity benchmarks have opened with a negative bias with the NSE Nifty dropping under the 5050 mark in early morning trade. The BSE Sensex is hovering around 16,800.

The Nifty opened on a tepid note echoing weak Asian markets. Traders opt to wait for the results of the crucial European Summit to be held on Friday before taking any call. The Sensex was down 71.14 points or 0.42% at 16805.92, and the Nifty was down 24.85 points or 0.49% at 5037.75. About 446 shares advanced, 510 shares declined, and 2783 shares remain unchanged.

US and European Markets

U.S. stocks ended mostly higher Wednesday as investors bet that European leaders will produce a meaningful solution to the debt crisis at a highly anticipated summit this week.

Dow Jones rose 46 points, or 0.3%, to end at 12,196. S&P 500 gained 2 points, or 0.2%, to 1,261. Nasdaq declined less than 1 point to 2,649.

European stock markets ended lower yesterday as hopes for progress at this week?s European Union summit were tempered by German objections to an alleged plan to boost the firepower of the eurozone?s bailout fund. Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.4%, the DAX in Germany lost 0.6% and France's CAC 40 ended little changed.

Asian Markets

Today, all the Asian indices are trading in the red with Strait Times trading lower by 1.7% while Taiwan is down 1.4%. Nikkei and Kospi are down by 1% and 0.8% respectively. Shanghai is down 0.8%. Japan's Nikkei slipped from a four-week high on Thursday morning on profit taking ahead of a futures contract settlement and as market players turned cautious ahead of key events in Europe. As of IST 8.33 am, SGX Nifty is trading lower today by 14.5 points.

Currencies

The rupee fell for the second day losing 30 paise to close at 51.71/72 against the dollar following sustained dollar demand from importers and late weakness in local stocks.

Commodities

Among the metals, Zinc and Copper gained 0.75 and 0.6% respectively. Aluminium and Nickel rose by 0.25 and 0.1% respectively. Oil for January delivery fell 79 cents to $100.49 a barrel. Gold futures for February delivery rose $13 to $1,744.80 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

US Consumer Credit Report

China Industrial Production and Retail Sales

India Weekly Inflation

US Jobless Claims and Wholesale Trade data

ECB rate cut announcement

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open on a flat to negative note and could trade in a range today with negative bias. The markets could be nervous ahead of the ECB meet today and EU summit tomorrow. Among the sectors, Banking stocks could underperform.

Sources-hdfcsec,

Positive trigger galore, but sentiment remains weak!!

2011-12-07T17:25:00.000+05:30

The Nifty moved swiftly over the past couple of week to capture Mt. 5k and is currently battling to retain the control of this elusive point. Over the past couple of weeks this swift rise has been greeted with many names; technical pull back, bounce, global move towards risk assets and relief rally to name a few. Having said all this and being couple of week away (in terms of trading sessions) from closing the year 2011; my thinking is that right from the beginning of 2011, where, recall the kind of optimism we started on.

And through the year, one bad news after another we slowly gave away for pessimism and now at the end of the year there is this heightened sense of fear, equity shunning attitude amongst clients and a general sense of lack of trust in how 2012 would be for equities and its performance.

If there is little bit of learning that history can teach us and that we can learn some bit from a discipline called human psychology, it is that there can be patterns that seem to repeat and there is a general tendency of human behavior where people follow herds etc.

In a nutshell, when investors are losing sleep and hope and generally have all bad things to say about the way things are panning out then over the future, could be a time to switch off and try to figure out what the big picture is telling us. Time to take a step back and see where things are taking us or are likely to take us, time to see what smart people are doing in times like these.

The answers would turn out to be clearer as time progresses, the only thing that we need to remember is that had we thought and cultivated the foresight to see what others are not able to see. Not because they were blind but just that they refuse to accept what they saw. It is just easier said than done.

And in our business, even more difficult to practice. So for today, the Nifty appears to be precariously positioned, looks like it might go anywhere. So again, the time to just add some fun to the close of the year. I want to run a quick contest for you all. So stay tuned.

Govt may cut EPF Rate by 1.25%

2011-12-07T14:35:00.000+05:30

About six crore employees could be in for a rude shock with the government considering a 1.25% cut in the Employees’ Provident Fund (EPF) rate for this year -- the first time in a decade that the returns on these retirement savings would be slashed by more than a percentage point.

Labour minister Mallikarjuna Kharge had promised workers that the Centre would try to raise the EPF rate for 2011-12 beyond the 9.5% paid last year.

But now, a rate of 8.25% is on the cards.

An official close to the development told ET that the primary reason for the proposed reduction in the EPF rate is the decision to pay 9.5% to members last year.

Though the scheme’s income for 2010-11 supported a payout of 8.5% to workers, the government decided to raise the rate to 9.5% after it found ‘hidden’ reserves of around Rs 1,700 crore that had accumulated in its coffers over the years. But it now emerges that these reserves were insufficient for supporting the 1% largesse declared by the government, forcing the provident fund office to dip into this year’s income as well, in order to honour its commitment of a 9.5% rate for 2010-11.

Morning Bell!!!!......Nifty Inching towards 5100

2011-12-07T10:36:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The benchmark index Nifty was inching towards 5100 mark aligning itself to positive cues from the global markets. Intraday support levels are placed at 4995 and 4940 whereas the resistance levels are placed at 5065 and 5110.

At 09.40 hrs IST, the Sensex was up 157.07 points or 0.93% at 16962.40, and the Nifty was up 48.10 points or 0.95% at 5087.25. About 1063 shares advanced, 442 shares declined, and 2234 shares remain unchanged.

US and European Markets

On Wall Street, stocks mostly rose on Tuesday on a report that European leaders might create a second bailout fund to supplement the one they have already agreed to. The second fund would nearly double the capacity of Europe's financial rescue programs. The plan involves allowing the existing 440 billion euros bailout fund to continue running when a new 500 billion euros facility comes into force in mid-2012, almost doubling the rescue system's firepower.

On Tuesday, S&P said it might also cut the AAA rating of Europe's bailout fund. The fund needs that top rating to cheaply raise money, and losing it would mean it would cost billions more to fund bailouts.

On Tuesday, hopes that Europe was finally serious about taming its debt crisis boosted U.S. stocks. Dow Jones closed up 0.4% at 12,150. S&P's 500 index closed up 0.1% to 1,258. Nasdaq composite closed down 0.2% at 2,650.

Asian Markets

Today, all the Asian indices are trading in the green with Taiwan trading higher by 1.1% while Hang Seng, Kospi and Nikkei are up 0.9% each. Strait Times and Shanghai are up by 0.5% and 0.2% respectively. Asian stocks are up amid growing optimism that European leaders will approve aggressive plans by the end of the week to rescue the region from a debt crisis that has roiled financial markets for months. As of 8.42 am, SGX Nifty is trading higher today by 27 points.

Currencies

U.S. dollar appreciated vs the rupee by 0.1% on Monday, dragged by choppiness in the euro ahead of a key regional summit this week, although traders said easing dollar demand from oil importers limited losses in the local currency.

Commodities

Among the metals, Nickel gained 1.1% while Copper lost 1%. Zinc and Aluminium fell by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively. Oil for January delivery rose 21 cents to $101.20 a barrel.Gold futures for February delivery fell $2.70 to $1,731.80 an ounce.

Key events to watch for today

US EIA Petroleum Status Report,

Australia GDP Report,

UK, Germany, Italy Industrial Production

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open on a flat to positive note and could trade in a range today with positive bias. Among the sectors, Banking stocks could do well.

sources

Stock Tips- Government approves Rs.1000 crore support to Bank of India

2011-12-06T12:57:00.000+05:30

Government of India(GOI), the major stake holder in Bank of India (BOI) has increased its capital base by Rs.1000 crore, and the mode of capital infusion could be, through preferential allotment of shares. After pref allotment, GoI’s stake in the bank will go from the existing 65.86% to around 67.8%. BoI’s capital adequacy ratio too would reach 13% as against the existing 11.97%.

Rh Views: The bank’s asset quality remains a concern among market participants. It has an exposure of around Rs 550 crore to the debt-ridden Kingfisher airlines and the bank is in talks with company for restructuring of loans. while the credit extended to state electricity boards (SEBs) stands at Rs 6,500 crore and it does not show any sign of stress as per the management. We recommend to buy at the levels of Rs. 320-325 levels.

Mt. 5000, fight to retain it!!!!!

2011-12-05T17:31:00.000+05:30

It is a little perplexing that when there was stress in the western markets we were rightly getting the pain here, but when the western markets where there seem to be the epicenter of trouble, doing fine in the short term – while we get pummeled like hell even without reason. So here we have the western markets rebound like 4%-5% over the course of past few weeks we don’t recover half of that. Now, there are host of reason that are being put forth like high fiscal deficit, inflation, policy paralysis (new terms getting invented daily) and what not. Well these problems, according to me are cyclical and not structural; as those problems that plague the west today. Debt/GDP beyond control, sagging demand and joblessness; strong currency and inability to stimulate demand despite everything. Basically, the patient is dead.

Accept and move on.

Here, in the land of opportunity, despite everything, demand as much as an eye can see, young and happy crowd. Innovation – the concept of jugaad all over; yet money flees at the slightest hint of trouble. We are no Afghanistan (excuse me, but nothing against that country). Then why, would you imagine that there are no takers for cheap yet good quality assets?

The answer is us. We don’t invest enough. We keep the money in the saving’s account despite measly returns of 4% and an inflation of 10%. We rush to open accounts for 6% and banks spend money on advertisement since they know that by spending money the RoI is high. They will get cheap money.

We just don’t participant in the securities market. IPO’s flop, PE funds don’t get the required capital when they market their funds. We are so risk averse. Yet there seems to be hope. Only when we work hard enough to convince people; bit by bit and tell them to join the party where the world is going to come. It would be better to be there first and take the choicest of seats.

Enough of dope.

Tomorrow is an off day for the market. So breath easy.

Product Punch-: Invest In Mutual Fund thru Your ATM Card

2011-12-05T14:52:00.000+05:30

Reliance Any Time Money Card

Reliance Capital Asset Management Ltd has tweaked and re-launched a product that aims to take on banks offering higher interest rates on their savings bank account. Originally launched in January 2006, it’s called Reliance Any Time Money Card.

What is it?
It works just like your bank’s automated teller machine or ATM-cum-debit card. Using this card you can withdraw money from any of your Reliance mutual fund (MF) schemes or can even shop with it. When this card was issued in 2006, it was only introduced for three schemes. Later, the fund house extended this card to all the schemes.

Primary account

Here comes the major tweak behind the card’s re-launch. The MF mandates that you must invest in either Reliance Liquid fund—Treasury Plan (a liquid scheme) or Reliance Money Manager Fund (an ultra short-term scheme) to be eligible for this card. Over and above this, you are free to invest in any of the other Reliance MF schemes. Additionally, the fund house has a tie-up with HDFC Bank Ltd. Through an HDFC Bank’s automated teller machine, you can withdraw from any of Reliance MF schemes.

But if you withdraw from any other bank’s Visa-enabled ATM—or shop using Reliance ATM card—you can only withdraw from either of the two primary account schemes that you have invested in. The fund house said that the ATM card is meant as an alternative to savings bank account and to offer similar liquidity. The fund house, therefore, claims that it does not make sense to invest in long-tenor schemes such as equity and bond funds and then withdraw from them.

Limits and cost
The card comes free of cost, except when you use it to withdraw cash—or check your account balance—when you are abroad. The card offers instant liquidity compared with the traditional way of MF withdrawals. You can withdraw up to 50% of the scheme’s balance or Rs. 50,000, whichever is lower. That’s the daily limit; you can continue to withdraw the next day, provided you have sufficient account balance.

Should you acquire the card?
It’s hard to imagine anyone who still doesn’t have an ATM card of a bank, so this ATM card acts as an additional one, if you need one, that is. Go for the card if you are invested in Reliance AMC schemes because it is free of cost. You may just want to keep it for emergencies. You may also have to invest further in their primary account schemes to be eligible for the card, but the convenience and liquidity that it offers may be worth the effort. In this case, you may invest a minuscule amount in liquid funds.

Remember though, using your equity or other long-tenor funds to sponsor your shopping or withdrawal needs is a bad idea; these are best left untouched to meet your original finance goals. If you must withdraw, stick to your liquid fund investments for withdrawals.

Morning Bell !!!....The Sensex opened flat after rallying 1151 points last week.

2011-12-05T09:44:00.001+05:30

Indian Markets

The Sensex opened flat after rallying 1151 points last week. Key European events that will decide market directions include today’s meeting between French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel; ECB & BoE meeting on Thursday and the EU Summit on Friday. Asian markets were mixed ahead of these events. The Sensex was down just 13 points at 16,833.45 and the Nifty declined 6.4 points at 5,043.75.

US Markets

U.S. stocks ended a stellar week with a whimper on Friday, erasing the morning's big job-related gains as concerns about Europe's debt crisis took over in the afternoon. The Dow Jones industrial average and the S&P 500 each lost a fraction of a point, while the Nasdaq rose less than 1 point. Earlier, all three major indexes had been up more than 1%.

Bank stocks were among the top gainers Friday, with Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase posting the biggest increases on the Dow. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup shares also finished sharply higher.

The mood on Wall Street was positive after the U.S. government said employers boosted payrolls by 120,000 jobs in November, while the unemployment rate eased to 8.6% -- its lowest level since March 2009. In a speech to the German parliament Friday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel reaffirmed her support for a fiscal union.

Asian Markets

Today, the Asian indices are trading on a mix note with Shanghai, Strait Times & Taiwan trading lower by 0.8%, 0.3% & 0.5% respectively. However, Hang Seng, Nikkei & Kospi are trading higher by 0.2%, 0.4% & 0.1% respectively.

Currencies & Commodities

Oil for January delivery gained 0.76% to $100.96 a barrel. Gold futures for December delivery rose 0.66% to $1,751.3 an ounce.

Outlook for Today

After a sharp rally on Friday, we expect the markets to open marginally lower and consolidate in a range throughout the session. Immediate support for Nifty is at 4939, while resistance is at 5108. Among the sectoral indices, Banks, Metals & Power look good.

Source- hdfcsec,moneycontrol.Rh morning market update

Weekly Snap Shot- Sensex gained 7.6%, the Nifty closed 7.22% higher

2011-12-03T13:53:00.000+05:30

After bouncing back from the lows of 4639 late last week, the week gone by saw the markets rallying strongly to end the week with hefty gains. While the Sensex gained 7.6%, the Nifty closed 7.22% higher. Market breadth was however positive in only two out of the five trading sessions of the week.

Key Events

Global Markets

The number of people filing for initial unemployment benefits in the USA rose by 6,000 to 402,000 in the latest week, the government said. That was higher than expected, with economists forecasting jobless claims to have totaled 390,000 for the week ending Nov. 26.

Standard and Poor's cut the ratings on dozens of major banks, including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup. The downgrades were the result of the agency's new ratings criteria for the world's 37 largest financial institutions.

Worries about Europe's debt crisis continued to dominate the week amid a series of lackluster debt auctions and rising eurozone bond yields. Mounting yields continued to trouble investors on Friday. Italian 10-year bond yields moved back above 7%, a level that eventually required bailouts for Greece, Portugal and Ireland. The Spanish 10-year yield also rose to within spitting distance of the worrisome level.

Indian Markets

Government indicated that no proposal for any kind of bailout package for loss making private airlines was under its consideration.

India's October exports rose an annual at Rs 1,01,920 crore ($19.6 billion). Oil imports for the month grew 21.7% to Rs 1,03,480 crore ($19.9 billion), while imports for the month rose 21.7% to Rs 2,05,400 crore ($39.5 billion)

Terming the 6.9% economic growth in the second quarter as "lower than expectation", the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council indicates that good performance by farm sector would take annual growth for FY12 to 7.5%

Key Sectoral Movement

All the sectoral indices ended with gains for the week ended December 02, 2011. The top sectoral gainers were BSE Metal, Bankex, Oil and Gas and Power indices.

Outlook of the week

With the markets rebounding strongly and the Nifty crossing the 5011 resistances, the bulls do seem to have an upper hand. Traders will need to see if the Nifty can cross the 5169 resistances for further upsides. Crucial downside supports are at 4920.

Source-hdfcsec

NIFTY 5050....

2011-12-02T17:44:00.000+05:30

This might sound like a T20 event or another sporting format; but the title just conveys the today’s closing index level and it sounded rather catchy. We had a rather nervous start to this week and slowly but surely appears to be consolidating on the upside. The front runners of today seem to be the stock which have corrected sharply through the gory month of Nove12mber 2011; and not necessarily the high beta names. Tata Power for one, Ambuja , ACC, TCS, HCL and many more in the highest gainers list are actually whose beta is normal as compared to the high beta names which run during the market movement such as today’s.

With the slow season hitting us in the next couple of weeks (the US and EU would slow down considerably) we could expect to see some sterile movement of the market and as a consequence drying of volumes and low volatility too. But the question is could this December 2011 be different? Just to refresh our memories, on both recent occasions in the past two years December has brought cheer to the markets contrary to the popular notion that Hedge fund sell and take the vacation with the money. For the Indian markets, December 2009 returned 5.25% and December 2010 returned 6.65% which are excellent gains by any standards. And if the same were to repeat this December too; then it would be heaven sent. It would do two things; close the year out on a positive note, and two and more importantly – lower the YTD or full year losses staring at us down to the extent of the gains during the month.

But whatever, December 2011 does, we should all remember that in equities unless you play for December 2020, there is no point in talking about returns since things change pretty drastically. From profit to loss and vice versa.

As they say, when you are scaling Mt. Everest, you would realize the gravity of the situation only when you scale the peak or are close to it, before that there would be no fun no challenge and no point to talk about how much you climbed.

So until we scale Mt. 12000 or so on the Nifty index, these marginal fluctuations are just worth brushing aside for.

Morning Bell !!!.......key Indian stock indices have taken a breather after the previous day's strong advance

2011-12-02T10:35:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The key Indian stock indices have taken a breather after the previous day's strong advance with the BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty barely moving in early morning trade. Both the benchmarks seem to be struggling for direction. The Sensex stalled its rally today and fell marginally as investors opted to book profits.

The index, which gained 360 points on Thursday on global cues, was down 26.5 points at 16,456.94. The Nifty was down 7 points at 4,929.50.

After opening on a very positive note on Thursday, markets slid lower. They nevertheless managed to close with healthy gains for the day. While the BSE Sensex finally closed 359.99pts or 2.23% higher at 16,483.45, the Nifty gained 104.8pts or 2.17% to close at 4,936.85.

US Markets

U.S. stocks ended mixed on Thursday, after a big rally on Wednesday, as investors were reluctant to push prices higher amid ongoing worries about Europe.

The Dow Jones industrial average lost 26 points, or 0.21%, to 12,020. The S&P 500 fell 2 points, or 0.2% to 1,244. But the Nasdaq composite added 6 points, or 0.2%, to end at 2,626.

Asian Markets

Today, barring Nikkei, which is trading marginally higher by 0.2%, all the other Asian indices are trading in the red with Hang Seng & Shanghai trading lower by 0.3% & 1% respectively. Strait Times, Kospi & Taiwan are trading lower by 0.6%, 0.3% & 0.7% respectively.

Currencies & Commodities

The Metal prices ended sharply higher with Aluminium & Copper rising 6.2% & 5.3% respectively, while Zinc & Nickel ended higher by 4.9% & 1.2% respectively. The dollar slumped against the euro and British pound, but rose versus the Japanese yen. Oil for January delivery slipped 13 cents to $100.06 a barrel. Gold futures for December delivery fell $9.10 to $1,749 an ounce.

Outlook for Today

Today, the Indian markets could open marginally lower and remain range-bound until they get further cues from the European markets. Among the sectoral indices, Banks, Metals & FMCG are expected to outperform while IT could underperform.

Source- Rh morning market, hdfcsec

Morning Bell !!!.....Sensex gains 500+ Points on the back of worldwide rally

2011-12-01T10:20:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The frontline Indian equity benchmarks have rallied in early morning trade on the back of a worldwide rally in risky assets after six top central banks swung into action to ease credit conditions for banks amid worries about the worsening debt crisis in the eurozone. The BSE Sensex spurted by more than 500 points while the Nifty briefly crossed 5000 mark before softening slightly

Indian markets ended higher on Wednesday despite a disappointing domestic second quarter GDP and weak global peers. While the BSE Sensex finally closed 115.12pts or 0.72% higher at 16,123.46, the Nifty gained 26.95pts or 0.56% to close at 4,832.05.

US Markets

Investors around the world raced to scoop up stocks on Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve said it would work with other central banks to support the global economy.

All three major stock indexes closed the day up more than 4%. The Dow's 489-point gain is the largest of 2011 and the best percentage gain since March 2009. Still, despite today's run-up, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are down for the year.

The Indian ADRs ended on a mix note with Dr. Reddy?s & MTNL ending lower by 0.8% & 0.9% respectively. However, Infosys & Wipro ended higher by 2.1% & 1.7% respectively. Tata Motors, ICICI & HDFC Bank gained 2.8%, 4.1% & 4.1% respectively.

Asian Markets

Today, the Asian indices are trading sharply higher with Nikkei, Shanghai & Hang Seng trading higher by 2.1%, 3.7% & 5.6% respectively. Strait Times, Kospi & Taiwan are trading higher by 2.3%, 3.7% & 3.7% respectively.

Currencies & Commodities

Among the Metal prices, Zinc gained 0.2%, while Aluminium, Copper & Nickel fell by 0.9%, 0.5% & 0.4% respectively. The dollar gained against the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen. Oil for January delivery gained 43 cents to $100.22 a barrel. Gold futures for December delivery moved up $30.50 to $1,744.20 an ounce.

Outlook for Today

Today, the Indian markets could open sharply higher on the back of firm global cues.However, later during the day it could run into resistance at higher levels. Among the sectoral indices, Banks, Auto & FMCG are expected to outperform

Sources- hdfcsec,rh morning market

Headless chickens!!!!

2011-11-30T18:49:00.001+05:30

Now please don’t salivate at the thought of having butter chicken or kebabs after reading the title. I am describing the situation we are in with respect to the market. Monday we are up on a thumping note, yesterday we were down for some reason despite Asia being up; today we are down and then up. Now by this logic tomorrow we should be up and then down and on Friday we should close flat. Now I am trying my hand at astrology, but the market is such that every Tom, Dick and Harry can try his luck predicting the market as they do on TV everyday. Individually they would get certain part right, collectively they could get one part right and the other wrong and finally the system would do things which ensures nobody gets it right for most part.

Today’s session was very volatile to say the least. Index heavyweights were losing in the first half and came back in green as the day progressed. Of all the index names, it was perplexing to see heavyweights change course and turn green, green names getting stronger and red ones getting redder by the hour. So if people in the intra-day segment played for a turn around in the ones for the making a wild swing on a directional bet (that is hoping for deep red to close flat and make money and vice versa) they would be going home lighter on the pocket.

Asides, this Amul baby (remember the ACK remark on Rahul Gandhi earlier this year) which is usually calm looks really pissed off in the photo below. And this very well describes the sentiment and mood of the nation at this moment. Looks like we had had enough. Also, there seems to be another round of Anna Hazare campaign in the offing sometime in mid-December 2011, which again is a bad thing since no business would get done in the parliament. Not that there has been anything left of doing business, but still.

Finally, November 2011 closed as indicated earlier, with deep cuts – 9.85% down to be precise. On a monthly basis in terms of worse performing months, it would come very close to being right on top. One more month and we close 2011. In 2012 the Armageddon strikes anyways, so let’s start the party. This was on a lighter side. Sleep tight.

source- Rh daily rant

Morning Bell!!!!..... Key Indices trading in red, S&P downgraded rating of several Top US Banks

2011-11-30T10:42:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

Indian stocks came under pressure in early morning trade, with the NSE Nifty falling under the 4800 mark, as investors continue to be cautious amid a political stalemate over a whole host of issues.

The latest issue to spark a political storm has bee the Cabinet decision to open up the retail sector to foreign companies. Also weighing on the sentiment is weakness in the Asian benchmarks after Standard & Poor's downgraded several lenders, including top US banks citing a change in its ratings criteria.

US Markets

U.S. stocks finished mostly higher on Tuesday, with the Dow and S&P extending gains from the previous day's rally, as investors remained hopeful that leaders are making progress on addressing the eurozone debt crisis.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 33 points, or 0.3%, and the S&P 500 added 3 points, or 0.2%. The Nasdaq composite finished lower, losing 12 points, or 0.5%, with Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Wynn Resorts and Netflix dragging on the index.

Asian Markets

The Chinese market is the top loser, down ~2% while the Nikkei in Japan and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong and the Taiex in Taiwan are down 1% each. The parliament has been adjourned every single day during the winter session

Currencies & Commodities

Among the Metal prices, Aluminium & Nickel ended lower by 0.6% & 1.8% respectively, while Copper & Zinc gained 0.9% & 0.4% respectively. The dollar slumped against the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen. Oil for January delivery rose $1.58 to settle $99.79 a barrel. Gold futures for December deliver rose $2.60 to settle at $1,713.40 an ounce.

Outlook for Today

Today, the Indian markets are likely to open lower and trade in a range with negative bias. Immediate support for Nifty is at 4766, while resistance is at 4866. Among the sectoral indices, FMCG and Healthcare are looking good, while Banks, Metals and Realty are looking weak.

source- hdfcsec,Rh morning market,iifl

Market Taking a breather!

2011-11-29T16:28:00.000+05:30

Looks like it is time to stop and ponder for the market. With the kind of run we saw yesterday, it was only logical that we stopped and took some time off to breath. Today’s session was clearly a sandwich of sorts, what with Asia opening and continuing to stay green throughout. While we tried to break even mid way and then EU pulled us down. That region has been in some sort of news overhang. But clearly, just to think of it, isn’t it that we actually started the fire right in the eastern coast of the US in the fall of 2007; and now here we are in the middle of the globe all but talking about EU region and saving of the country after country; which seems to be far bigger problem combined than all kind of issues that lay open in the US.

Back home though, we have our own set of challenges, what with the opposition not playing ball with the FDI in retail and a laundry list of merchant associations taking to the streets; obviously at the behest of the opposition parties. So while most of the retail stock which flew away like soaring kites to the sky are now back down today like the same kites whose string was severed by design. Such is the trick of the market. Never rush, since the rush would only trample you.

That is also why investing is as much of an art as science, replete with technical jargon and computer models. So today we have the high flyers of yesterday again taking backseat; down anywhere from 1%-2.5% taking with it the market which closed 1% down. Tomorrow is another day. However, what and end to the month of November 2011. All in all, whatever happens tomorrow it could be either a single digit fall or a double digit one, the month closing down by a big margin is all but certainty

Morning Bell !!!!...........The main Indian equity benchmarks have opened with a negative

2011-11-29T11:14:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The main Indian equity benchmarks have opened with a negative bias as the ongoing political confrontation between the Government and the Opposition parties has escalated over various issues, including the Cabinet's move to open up the retail sector to the foreign companies.

Shares of retail companies have fallen for second successive session as pressure mounts on the Government to rollback the decision on allowing up to 51% FDI in multi-brand retail trade.

US Markets

U.S. stocks posted sharp gains on Monday, following reports of strong Black Friday weekend sales and amid optimism that European leaders may be working toward a solution to the continent's debt crisis.

The Dow Jones industrial average soared 291 points, or 2.6%, the S&P 500 added 34 points, or 2.9%, and the Nasdaq composite rose 86 points, or 3.5%. The advance broke a 4-day losing streak for the Dow and seven consecutive days of declines for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

Asian Markets

Today, barring Strait Times, which is trading marginally lower by 0.1%, all the other Asian indices are trading in the green. Hang Seng & Taiwan are up by 0.7% & 0.7% respectively, while Shanghai & Nikkei are trading higher by 0.5% & 0.8% respectively. Kospi is trading higher by 1.5%.

Currencies & Commodities

Among the Metal prices, Aluminium & Copper ended higher by 0.8% & 2.4% respectively, while Zinc & Nickel gained 2.4% & 1.6% respectively. The dollar slumped against the euro and the British pound, but edged higher versus the Japanese yen. Oil for January delivery jumped $1.44 to settle at $98.21 a barrel. Gold futures for December delivery rose $25.10 to settle at $1,710.80 an ounce.

Outlook for Today

After a sharp rally yesterday, today we expect the markets to open on a flat note & trade in a narrow range. Immediate support for Nifty is at 4766, while resistance is at 4874. Among the sectoral indices, Oil & Gas, FMCG and Banks are looking good.

SOURCE- HDFCSEC,RH MORNING MARKET UPDATE

Key Economic Data

2011-11-28T11:00:00.002+05:30

Source- nse,bse.rbi,

Morning Bell !!!.....The Sensex surged over 200 points in the opening trade, reacting to a solution to Italy's debt problems

2011-11-28T10:09:00.000+05:30

Indian Markets

The key Indian stock indices rose smartly in early morning trade on the back of healthy gains in other Asian markets. Reports on European leaders readying draft rules for the region's bailout fund and the IMF preparing financial aid for debt-laden Italy have lifted the sagging sentiment across Asia. Also adding to the positive mood is news that US retail sales jumped over the Thanksgiving weekend.

The Sensex surged over 200 points in the opening trade, reacting to a solution to Italy's debt problems last week. There were reports that International Monetray Funds (IMF) is preparing Euro 600 billion loan for Italy in case the debt burden worsens. The week started on a good note as market witnessed broad based buying. The 30-share BSE Sensex was up 271 points at 15,966 and the 50-share NSE Nifty rose 81 points to 4,790 in the opening trade.

US Markets

U.S. stocks ended lower on Friday, logging the worst weekly losses in two months, as euro zone fears continued to weigh on investor sentiment.

Asian Markets

Today, the Asian indices are trading in the green with Taiwan trading up by 1.66%, Shanghai up by 0.45%, Hang Seng up by 1.84% and Strait Times up by 1.37%.

Currencies & Commodities

Among the Metal prices, Aluminium, Zinc, Copper & Nickel fell 1.1%, 0.8%, 0.9% & 0.9% respectively. The dollar gained strength against the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen. Oil for January delivery rose 40 cents to $96.57 barrel. Gold futures for December delivery fell $10.10 to $1,685.70 an ounce.

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the markets to open higher on reports that IMF is expected to provide upto Euro 400 bn assistance to Italy while France & Germany are exploring radical proposal for more rapid fiscal integration. Immediate support for Nifty is at 4639, while resistance is at 4771. Among the sectoral indices, Banks, CG and Realty could do well while IT and Healthcare could underperform.

source- hdfcsec,rhmorning market update

Tendulkar's Principles apply in investing - Consistency and discipline

2011-11-26T18:06:00.001+05:30

"Dream Big and try consistently to get it" that's what the great Sachin Tendulkar says.And same thing applies to your financial goals too. I have a big dream to become a crorepati. And I am sure; you too must be nursing the same ambition.

Ok. Now that you and I have a dream we better get up and start working towards it. We have to figure out the shortest and the surest way to become a crorepati. A few ways, of course, are:

Winning a lottery
Winning the KBC show
Getting it in inheritance
Saving and investing with a plan that can get you there

Unless I am really lucky or extra-ordinarily talented my chances of becoming rich are slim by the first three ways. The fourth way seems to me like something that we can do to achieve our goal.

I want to become a crorepati in 10 years

Time is running out on you. Though 10 years is not a long duration, it is not too short either. So your dream can still be achievable.

Weekly Market Snapshot.....W-o-W, while the Sensex lost 4.3%, the Nifty lost 3.99% over the same period

2011-11-26T10:33:00.000+05:30

The week gone by saw the markets continuing to slide lower. In the process, the crucial lows of 15745/4720 were broken and the Sensex/Nifty resumed their intermediate downtrend. It was the fourth consecutive week of losses. W-o-W, while the Sensex lost 4.3%, the Nifty lost 3.99% over the same period. Reflecting the weak sentiments seen during the week, market breadth was negative in three out of the five trading sessions of the week.

Global Markets

US crude oil fell more than $2 and Brent crude lost over $1 per barrel on worries over the prospects for global economic growth as debt crises dominated headlines on both sides of the Atlantic.

The euro zone's debt crisis struck again at the heart of Europe despite a clear-cut election victory in Spain for conservatives committed to tougher austerity.

German government bond yields hit their highest in nearly a month and world stocks held near 7-week lows on Thursday, a day after a weak debt sale in Berlin fanned fears the euro zone debt crisis is starting to threaten its biggest economy.

Indian Markets

The Securities and Exchange Board (Sebi) set a minimum allotment size of Rs 5 crore ($1 million) for issuing shares in an initial public offer to "anchor" or cornerstone investors.
The Cabinet cleared the bill to increase foreign direct investment to 51% in multi-brand retail and 100% in single brand.

Inflation is expected to moderate if the current easing trend in weekly food and fuel prices continues. Food inflation fell sharply to single digit at 9.01% for the week ended November 12 even as prices of most agricultural items, barring potatoes, onions and wheat, continued to rise, on an annual basis.

Amid falling value of rupee, the RBI today asked corporates to park funds raised through ECBs for domestic expenditure with local banks, a move which will increase inflow of foreign currency.

Outlook of the week

With the markets again resuming their downtrend after bouncing back on Thursday and the Sensex/Nifty trading below their previous lows of 15745/4720, the underlying trend remains down. Our immediate downside targets for the Nifty are at 4640. We continue with our go slow approach on fresh longs till we see signs of sustainable strength.

Source-hdfcsecurity

Gold: Mr Dependable in Crisis!!

2011-11-25T16:26:00.000+05:30

Invest in gold as it has edge over equities: Investment in gold works both in hedge market fluctuation and inflation. Gold prices are less volatile than equities and gold gives a good return even in falling markets. Gold can be bought in physical form or in the form of ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds). It is easier to buy, hold and sell gold in ETF form. In case you don’t have a demat account, then gold funds are also available like other mutual fund units through SIP. Investment in gold is tax efficient too. As there is no income during the holding period, the tax liability is nil. You can also take a loan against gold as security for temporary needs at a reasonable rate of interest within minutes. If you need to sell, then the long term capital gain tax rates are also lower than normal rates. Moreover the cost of purchase gets increased by inflation index. Thus zero tax liability in holding while your money is appreciating more than the rate of interest or inflation in general and lower tax liability in case of sale also – that’s the advantage of buying Gold. Buy gold for long term needs, happiness and security. Buying gold coins from banks or MMTC at a premium from market price does not help. You may not be able to sell it at a premium too – your sale might be below the market price. Hence buying in ETF form is best or buy jewellery, to make your loved ones happy.

Source-taxplanner

Morning Bell !!!....Cabinet approves multi‐brand retail, 100% FDI allowed in single‐brand Retail.

2011-11-25T11:50:00.000+05:30

Indian Market:

The key Indian stock benchmarks have managed to claw their way back in mid-morning trade after a soft opening, with Small-Cap and Mid-Cap shares leading from the front. As a result, the market breadth has turned higher. Barring IT, Oil & Gas and Metals, all the sectoral indices on the BSE are also in the positive zone.

At 10:45 am (IST), the BSE Sensex was 15,865, up 6 points over the previous close. It had earlier touched a day’s high of 15,891and a day’s low of 15,672. It opened at 15,781. NSE Nifty was quoting 4,759, up 3 points over the previous close. It has earlier touched a day’s high of 4,767 and a day’s low of 4,700. It opened at 4,731.

Yesterday’s closing Bell-

Sensex staged a pull‐back in the afternoon and closed the settlement day of November series on a positive note. Capital goods, auto and power stocks were the top sectoral performers while FMCG space ended marginally in the red. India's food inflation eased 9.01% for week ended November 12 against 10.63% a week ago. The primary articles price index was up 9.08 % as compared 10.39%. Cabinet approves multi‐brand retail, 100% FDI allowed in single‐brand Retail.

US Market:

US markets were closed yesterday on account of Thanksgiving.

Asian Market:

Asian stocks fell for a third day after German Chancellor Angela Merkel ruled out common euro‐area bonds and a bigger role for the European Central Bank in fighting the region’s debt crisis, damping the earnings outlook for Asian exporters.

Commodities:

Brent crude dropped in London, heading for a second weekly decline, as speculation Europe’s debt crisis threatens its economy countered concern violence in Saudi Arabia may destabilize the world’s biggest oil exporter.

Currency:

Euro edges up on short‐covering but still not far from a 7‐wk low hit the previous day, having suffered a steep fall after poor demand at a German bond sale fuelled fears the region's debt crisis was starting to threaten even Europe's biggest economy.

Today’s Market

Today market is likely to open on a flattish note but may advance during the day.

Source- NB,Rh morning update

How to calculate your life insurance coverage???

2011-11-24T17:33:00.000+05:30

All of us know that life cover is the first step to financial planning, but the right quantum of life cover is something that seems to elude most. The calculation of Human Life Value (HLV) helps avail the right amount of cover. The right assessment of life risk and sufficient life cover is something we owe to our near and dear ones who depend on us for financial support.

Morning Bell !!!.....The Nifty fell 1% to trade way below the 4700 level

2011-11-24T11:31:00.000+05:30

SENSEX 15506.82 -193.15 (-1.23%) NIFTY 4648.50 -57.95 (-1.23%)

Indian Markets

The key Indian stock indices have edged up ever so slightly in early morning trade but were seen struggling to hold on to the early gains amid signs of choppiness ahead of the F&O expiry. The opening today is mildly better as compared to some of the previous sessions as Asian markets have not fallen as hard as their US and European counterparts did overnight following a rare failure at a German bond auction.

US Markets

U.S. stocks slid deep into the red on Wednesday, ending down more than 2%, as eurozone fears rumbled on and a preliminary report showed that Chinese manufacturing slowed sharply. A lackluster report on the U.S. job market added to the gloomy mood on Wall Street.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 236 points, or 2.1%. The selling was broad, with all 30 components of the blue chip index losing ground. Bank of America was the biggest loser on the Dow, with shares sliding more than 4% and hitting their lowest level since March 2009. The S&P 500 dropped 26 points, or 2.2%, and the Nasdaq lost 61 points, or 2.4%. Investors were rattled by a disappointing auction of German bonds.

Asian Markets

Today, the Asian indices are trading on a mix note with Shanghai & Nikkei trading lower by 1.4% & 0.7% respectively. Shanghai is down as Chinese manufacturing activity fell to a 32-month low. However, the other Asian indices like Hang Seng, Strait Times, Kospi & Taiwan are trading in the positive in the range of 0.5%-1%.

Currencies & Commodities

The dollar gained against the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen. Oil for January delivery slipped $1.84 to settle at $96.17 a barrel. Gold futures for December delivery fell $6.50 to settle at $1,695.90 an ounce.

Outlook for Today

Today, we expect the markets to open marginally lower initially and then make an attempt to inch up. During the latter half of the session, it is likely to take cues from Dow Futures & European markets for further direction. With the Nifty breaking the crucial lows of 4720 yesterday, the underlying trend remains undoubtedly down in near term. However, considering a sharp fall over the last few trading sessions, we could see some bounce back in the markets for a day or two before the fresh downtrend resumes. Immediate support for Nifty is at 4641, while resistance is at 4759.

Source-hdfcsec, Rh morning update